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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | April 22, 2023

NY Gold Futures closed today at 19905 and is trading up about 8.99% for the year from last year's settlement of 18262. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it will decline further on a monthly level. Up to now, this market has been rising for 4 months going into April suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 20634 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 18134. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's close of 19862.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 1999 moving into a major high for 2020, from which the market has been in a bearish trend since then moving into the low in 2022 forming a reactionary trend of 2 years bottoming at 16183. Nonetheless, we have not elected any Yearly Bearish Reversal to date from the turning point of 2020, which tends to warn that the 2020 high could still be challenged until we elect a Yearly Bearish Reversal. Notwithstanding, 2022 was, in fact, an outside reversal to the downside closing lower than the previous year. Nonetheless, we have elected all four intermediate Yearly Bullish Reversals to date from the turning point of 2022 from this 2022 reaction low.

Curiously, the market has been only consolidating since that 2022 low and has been unable to exceed the high of that year while holding the low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. Nonetheless, the market has rebound quite strong and is trading within 1% of the previous high.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2021. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 19940 and support forming below at 19380. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 10th at 20634, which was up 23 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 31st. This was a key week for at least a temporary high. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 19965. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2020 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

After closing above last year's low of 16733.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 4 months since the low established back in November 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 18007 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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