ROLLING OVER! As sure as i was about TRANSITORY being a pathetic joke and the Pandemic not causing any market harm.
I NO LONGER see an extension to JULY for a crash but the start of a deep drop should happen on the second week of MAY.
In fact I will bet that the highs on all indices are in or within a fraction of a percent. I also see an immediate drop right HERE! No not a large one but one where there is no longer any traction for upside momentum. Earnings, economic data and INFLATION data will soon wake up the living dead.
VIX at extremes, projections for next two quarters are coming down, not up and is already a pathetic bet at a P/E of 19. CHINA as expected has surprised on the upside. The market takes this as a positive. it is a HUGE negative with Inflation. At best we see Stagflation here.
I actually have a pattern that if continues will place the DOW at the next low on 5/12. When preposterous reactions to a dire situation occurs that is the biggest warning flag you will ever get to trade off of. The known Pandemic with known infections and deaths and a 100 year old chart repeat gets ignored completely for 5 weeks with not a single major article or brokerage house sounding the alarm tells you we can mask and twist any situation to please our bias. ONE TRILLION swept under the rug with no consequences? In fact the street has concluded it HELPED their cause by tightening bank lending and concluding it will stop inflation.
I shouted, swore, begged people to follow my logic on the Pandemic but was told the TECHNICAL proved I was wrong. I am shouting today. There is a possibility that my MAY crash doesn't occur but it only guarantees a JULY one.
