Wednesday, April 12, 2023 11:29:54 AM
The root of inflation is energy cost. As it moves up the cost of everything else begins to move up. As it moves down everything else begins to move down. There has been about a 3-month lag in this inflation cycle as you can see in the BLS chart below. What's happening now is that business and employees are trying to catch-up to the inflation from several months ago. Medical services were up .6%, transportation services 1.4%, (think the cost of an airline ticket), shelter up .6%. On the other side gasoline dropped 4.6% and nat gas 7.1%.
More specifically on the inflation front airline tickets moved up 4%, auto insurance 1.2%, bakery products 1.9%, meats/eggs 2.8%, women's clothing 4.3%, children's footwear 2.9%, auto parts 1.2%, hotels and other lodging 3.1% and financial services 1.8%. These price increases will begin to moderate and if there's a recession, they'll fall.
More specifically on the inflation front airline tickets moved up 4%, auto insurance 1.2%, bakery products 1.9%, meats/eggs 2.8%, women's clothing 4.3%, children's footwear 2.9%, auto parts 1.2%, hotels and other lodging 3.1% and financial services 1.8%. These price increases will begin to moderate and if there's a recession, they'll fall.
You never know who's swimming naked until the tide goes out - Warren Buffett
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