Alternative Path

[gdl]

10 year note: By end of April we should see 4.2%. Dollar should rise to 106 plus. Talk of disinflation to a whisper. Quarterly earnings lowered and projections also lowered. Stock market perhaps as high as 4250 on SPX. Assumption of zero rate hike split down the middle.

Political front: Georgia indictment should be announced. Increased rhetoric by the GOP and FOX to the point of multiple demonstrations leading into violence. The desperation by Trump will assure he caused more deaths this time around than January 6th event. I suspect a gag order will be placed on TRUMP on charges of inciting violence. he will violate that order. Bank crisis creeps back into the news worldwide.

Seems only tangible evidence of a dire future will cause the stock market to start to crumble. I DO NOT know what or when that happens. Historians will have a field day trying to convince the future public it actually happened. We are in the most insane numbed immoral corrupt period of our democratic existence as the forces of dictatorial control gain traction and win elections! When the next depression hits there will be a huge backlash against the weakest groups and laws and rules will be so draconian it would be unrecognizable we ever were part of the 250 year experiment.

These are NOT speculation but obvious paths based on the last 8 years of economic and political movements.