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Friday, March 31, 2023 11:03:42 AM
Softs Report: Cotton, OJ, Coffee, Sugar, Cocoa
By: Jack Scoville | March 31, 2023
• COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was mixed to generally higher yesterday as traders prepared for the plant4ed area and quarterly stocks reports to be released this morning by USDA. The trade expects planted area to be about 11.2 million acres this year. The weekly export sales report wqas strong yesterday and featured buying from Vietnam and China. Ideas are that the world economic problems were fading into the background as the US stock market has rallied. Chart trends turned p. Chinese buying should stay strong as the country improves economically as it opens up from the covid lockdowns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and storms and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.44 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,485 bales, from 1,485 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8770 and 9910 May. Support is at 81.20, 80.30, and 79.80 May, with resistance of 84.60, 85.20 and 86.90 May.
• FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher after trading on both sides of unchanged. Trends remain up in the market. Futures remain supported by very short Orange production estimates for Florida. Demand is thought to be backing away from FCOJ with prices as high as they are currently. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. The Florida Dept of Citrus said that FCOJ inventories are down 38% from last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 260.00, 257.00, and 254.00 May, with resistance at 275.00, 281.00, and 287.00 May.
• COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed slightly higher yesterday, and London closed higher on ideas of little on offer from producers. Producers in Vietnam are said to have low stocks left to sell. Trends remain down in New York but are sideways in London. The lack of offers from South America and Vietnam is still supporting prices and reports indicate that demand for Robusta from Vietnam is strong and increasing due to cost differentials with Arabica. Differentials are now weakening in Brazil, Honduras, and Colombia, but reports indicate that differentials might start to firm up again as production ideas are low for Colombia and Brazil. The weather in Brazil is currently very good for production potential but worse conditions seen earlier in the growing cycle hurt the overall production prospects as did bad weather last year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.742 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 164.99 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers in southern areas with above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see isolated showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 165.00, 164.00, and 161.00 May. Support is at 167.00, 165.00, and 163.00 May, and resistance is at 173.00, 176.00 and 180.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2160, 2140, and 2090 May, and resistance is at 2250, 2270, and 2300 May.
• SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London both closed higher and at new highs for the move. Supplies are tight. Indian production is thought to be less than 33 million tons this year as mills are closing early there and Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. New crop Brazil production is solid this year but is still in the fields. Reports from private analysts suggest that Brazil can have a 13% increase in center-south production. Brazil producers are currently active in the futures market placing hedges on the production. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Some analysts now say that Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get isolated showers in southern areas. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2210 and 2310 May. Support is at 2140, 2100, and 2070 May and resistance is at 2220, 2250, and 2280 May. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 619.00, 608.00, and 600.00 May and resistance is at 640.00, 646.00, and 652.00 May.
• COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday. London was initially lower and actually hit the first target down for the move before rebounding to close back in the trading range and with slight gains. New York held to the recent range and closed at the upper end of the range. New York appears ready to make a new leg up on the charts. Wire reports suggest that producer selling increased on the recent rally in these markets. Trends remain up for at least the short term. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Mid crop production ideas are strong due to rains recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country. Ghana has reported a disease in its Cocoa to hurt production potential there, but overall production expectations are high. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ivory Coast exports are now 1.7857 million tons down 1.5% from last year.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.232 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2960 May. Support is at 2850, 2820, and 2780 May, with resistance at 2920, 2960, and 2990 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2100, 2070, and 2030 May, with resistance at 2160, 2200, and 2230 May.
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By: Jack Scoville | March 31, 2023
• COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was mixed to generally higher yesterday as traders prepared for the plant4ed area and quarterly stocks reports to be released this morning by USDA. The trade expects planted area to be about 11.2 million acres this year. The weekly export sales report wqas strong yesterday and featured buying from Vietnam and China. Ideas are that the world economic problems were fading into the background as the US stock market has rallied. Chart trends turned p. Chinese buying should stay strong as the country improves economically as it opens up from the covid lockdowns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and storms and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.44 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,485 bales, from 1,485 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8770 and 9910 May. Support is at 81.20, 80.30, and 79.80 May, with resistance of 84.60, 85.20 and 86.90 May.
• FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher after trading on both sides of unchanged. Trends remain up in the market. Futures remain supported by very short Orange production estimates for Florida. Demand is thought to be backing away from FCOJ with prices as high as they are currently. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. The Florida Dept of Citrus said that FCOJ inventories are down 38% from last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 260.00, 257.00, and 254.00 May, with resistance at 275.00, 281.00, and 287.00 May.
• COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed slightly higher yesterday, and London closed higher on ideas of little on offer from producers. Producers in Vietnam are said to have low stocks left to sell. Trends remain down in New York but are sideways in London. The lack of offers from South America and Vietnam is still supporting prices and reports indicate that demand for Robusta from Vietnam is strong and increasing due to cost differentials with Arabica. Differentials are now weakening in Brazil, Honduras, and Colombia, but reports indicate that differentials might start to firm up again as production ideas are low for Colombia and Brazil. The weather in Brazil is currently very good for production potential but worse conditions seen earlier in the growing cycle hurt the overall production prospects as did bad weather last year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.742 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 164.99 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers in southern areas with above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see isolated showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 165.00, 164.00, and 161.00 May. Support is at 167.00, 165.00, and 163.00 May, and resistance is at 173.00, 176.00 and 180.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2160, 2140, and 2090 May, and resistance is at 2250, 2270, and 2300 May.
• SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London both closed higher and at new highs for the move. Supplies are tight. Indian production is thought to be less than 33 million tons this year as mills are closing early there and Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. New crop Brazil production is solid this year but is still in the fields. Reports from private analysts suggest that Brazil can have a 13% increase in center-south production. Brazil producers are currently active in the futures market placing hedges on the production. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Some analysts now say that Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get isolated showers in southern areas. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2210 and 2310 May. Support is at 2140, 2100, and 2070 May and resistance is at 2220, 2250, and 2280 May. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 619.00, 608.00, and 600.00 May and resistance is at 640.00, 646.00, and 652.00 May.
• COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday. London was initially lower and actually hit the first target down for the move before rebounding to close back in the trading range and with slight gains. New York held to the recent range and closed at the upper end of the range. New York appears ready to make a new leg up on the charts. Wire reports suggest that producer selling increased on the recent rally in these markets. Trends remain up for at least the short term. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Mid crop production ideas are strong due to rains recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country. Ghana has reported a disease in its Cocoa to hurt production potential there, but overall production expectations are high. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ivory Coast exports are now 1.7857 million tons down 1.5% from last year.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.232 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2960 May. Support is at 2850, 2820, and 2780 May, with resistance at 2920, 2960, and 2990 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2100, 2070, and 2030 May, with resistance at 2160, 2200, and 2230 May.
Read Full Story »»»
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