Friday, March 31, 2023 9:46:38 AM
Firstly I have no doubt COVID-19 in Spain was a significant issue.
The default assumption for eligible patients are those who complete a trial. That number was 118 in PDD P2 trial.
Anavex claimed a rollover percentage of eligible patients in the 90’ties. Given 118 completed it would be a fair assumption to believe the OLE would have say about 100 enrolled. Some investors like to think of that as an indication the drug might be therapeutic.
Additionally Anavex have said COVID had limited impact on their clinical trials. This mb has praised Anavex for their management of trials during COVID.
So only now we learn that the delay initiating the OLE meant that only 33 patients enrolled. Most likely the majority if not all of them in Australia only, given the SAS Cat B access to A2-73 post the OLE.
This means two things: 1) Anavex have issues communicating information important to investors, 2) a high percentage of ELIGIBLE patients enrolling in an OLE can be far from the number reasonably assumed. Like the difference between about 100 and 33.
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