Annovis Bio Inc (ANVS)

[MZlu]

Reasons why PD data is delayed

Someone on Stocktwits called Annovis's IR and learned that:
- the Data and Safety Monitring Board (DSMB) was the responsible of the delay
- the IR person said DSMB is pondering whether or not Annovis should continue enrolling more patients for its ph3 PD trial

Two possibilities:
A- Data was horrible and the DSMB thinks it is better to stop here and saving patients' time.
B- Data was so good that the DSMB thinks current patient population is enough to demonstrate statistical significant efficacy, which will expedite the approval process.

Arguments supporting outcome B include:
- Positive and correlated feedback from ph2 PD patients with their being in the treatment arm.
- Noticeable improvement in PD symptoms (Maria mentioned writing speed).
- Enthusiam from the patient community in enrolling into the trial (Maria mentioned some centers had to stop recruiting because they reached their quotas).

On the valuation side:
- Company like Cerevel (CERE) has an enterprise value (EV) of $3.1B.
- CERE essentially has one phase 3 asset in PD and a three others in phase 2.
- Their lead drug candidate is just a better version of levodopa.

A quick and dirty valuation math gives us around $800M of value for this asset (simple division but in reality more as it is more advanced than the rest of the pipeline). Annovis's EV is only around $150M. If (when?) market recognizes buntanetap's potential, share price may reach $100+... on PD alone. Because if improvement is shown in PD, it is a confirmation of Maria's hypothesis for AD as well.

Thank you for those who took the time to read this and good luck.