E-Wave for the S&P 500 Index

[gdl]

Realists and Common Sense during major discrepancies usually lose out to extreme exuberance supported by 40 years of disinflation and a mega hyperbolic stock market. The ease at which all debacles get resolved in a quick and profitable manner reinforces why we had a banking crisis to begin with. Speculative bets, greed and hubris have actually increased with the increase in past mistakes causing massive temporary damage and equally massive bailouts shortening that damage each time. The ability for governments to mitigate such disasters is due to the acceptance that they can always increase their balance sheet with massive debt and have it paid for using future disinflation cheaper costs.

As of TODAY the May meeting has a 60% chance of ZERO rate hikes. I expect that to reach 80 to 90% days before the meeting regardless of inflation data.

Without breaking any of the numerous EW paths how high can this current wave go? Anytime between May and early July we should see the actual top for a very long time. We have now entered the absurd extrema optimistic view disregarding the laws of nature and common sense. it has only one path left for resolution, a genuine crash scenario.

The setup is there. Absurd altered viewpoint that will ONLY get dispelled in one clean moment of stark realization, like jumping into a pool f very cold water on a hot day. The CRASH: Should have the old fashion signature of a 4 day drop and a 20 percent plunge.

I have ALWAYS predicted how this ends and am even more convinced after the 40 years disinflation mindset went so far in speculative bets that it assures us we are in the twilight zone. FED is in a Catch-22 and regardless of their actions going forward it will not prevent a crash. They have NO CONTROL over inflation as proof of the 80's. if they refuse to raise rates in an inflation cycle that wouldn't stop the damage to the economy and might even exacerbate it.

Let us pray that Inflation is dead. Let us pray that a trillion dollar debacle in banking system will tighten monetary policy enough to thwart inflation once and for all. Get some old fashion religion.