Alternative Path

[gdl]

TRUMP has let out a barrage of attacks using racist and playing the victim demanding violence's in the name of justice. This is the new normal that everyone accepts and even rallies for. The GOP is now an extension of Trump and sits by ready to defend him with all means possible even breaking the law. Just like the addiction on disinflation and bailouts we now see everything as just normal business as usual. II took the Germans 12 years to get used to watching Jews being treated as vermin. It became NORMAL.

Just as the banking crisis is a symptom of our economy and warped addiction for ever lower rates the political arena is even more stark and frightening.

BOTH are about to play out as close to each other as never before. An apex, a trigger is about to test whether we spike even higher and quicker to an ending scenario or it stays simmering. With TRUMP and his 4 pending indictments the first one will trigger if we spike higher or simmer. Inflation and external Banking events will also determine if a Trigger is about to spike higher or simmer for longer.

I am amazed how these seemingly unrelated events always seem to converge at generation moment like this. I am convinced NOTHING said, done, or promised will change the set course. I am equally sure my very long standing notion that a super mega bear cycle is upon us. It makes no sense to conclude otherwise. Like expecting to see the river we row on end in rapids and a waterfall and now that the rapids are here ever increasing in intensity to suddenly change your assumptions all along. IT MAKES NO SENSE!

2023 will see such a drop that the latter half of the year should be all down on a weekly and monthly basis. 40 to 50% drop from it's highs seems about right.