E-Wave for the S&P 500 Index

[gdl]

PPT and decades of immediate relief from any debacle has created a numbed society. Free money from pandemic created a huge excess of disposable income. That outcome was known, inflation. but due to supply and demand at the same time was also known. What was not is the stubborn entrenchment of inflation. if it is here to stay it will cause a depression. Obviously we rely on disinflation like an addict.

I expect the same muted response and short term memory to once again kick in. UNLESS external evens are so bad it punctures thru. Next 5 weeks of data should clarify if the crisis itself has blunted inflation. MAY 3rd. Might be the MAYDAY signal. I expect the FED will have no affect going forward on the stock market by then IF inflation is still high and short term over reaction to bond yields and the dollar reverse right back up. the Banks are in dire situation. they desperately need the FED to stop hikes and announce a reversal soon. It might not be up to the FED on MAY 3rd.

I saw 2023 as the year of dramatic deep drops of 40 to 50% haircuts. I had no idea how the economic events would unfold other than understanding a generational process. I did mention that 40 years of disinflation was ingrained in everyone and expectation was for it to continue. To have a crisis over such a small Fed Funds rate tells you the desperation that this economy is in. An addict on disinflation and will always need it to survive. I think CHINA is the wild card. Human nature usually responds to a 2 year lockdown with relief and over spending. So far mixed economic results. They alone could spike commodities thru the roof.

My best GUESS is early MAY everything unravels.