People here, with the naivity of children perhaps, insist that this tiny biotech is going to be a massive winner, even though all of them agree on one thing: that an Alzheimer's approved drug may well be a 1 in 100 possibility. In other words, far more risky than a 50 to 1 nag at the race track, actually winning the race. Does a 50 to 1 odds horse win from time to time? NO. winning 1 time in 50 is not "from time to time." Let alone a horse with objective odds of 100 to 1. Those odds virtually require that the other 7 horses running in the race all simultaneously drop dead after the opening bell.
Why the people on this MB anguish and struggle and theorize and gnash their teeth and brains on every move and scintilla of possibility, is a bloviating obsession.
This CEO has a ten year track record. It is a magical mystery tour of loose ends and unkept promises and hidden data from the trials and changed endpoints and deals never closed, ends never tied, silent delays and endless speaking conferences, sliding and controversial standards for an approval, Big Pharma ready to throw its weight around without any shred of doubt even if there was a scintilla of actual hope, ...in a global mismash of trials and government regulators in distant lands, and our own dear old corrupt Big Pharma FDA, a proven corrupt entity.
Where is the beef? If you have 1 percent of your portfolio here, well, that is a fun lotto ticket (I have never bought a lotto ticket but see the poor people buying them all the time btw)........But to not recognize the realities of this declining stock, in what is probably a long term multi year bear market, is not an adult thing to do.
Fools and their money are soon parted. When does this tiny baby biotech stock go from hope to high risk to a "throwing the money around" delusion?
Can't you find anything more than a lotto ticket in the investing universe?
If not, then just go buy a lotto ticket and skip the intermediary. Why be irrational? Why be insistent on a proven 1 in 100 chance?
This is how 1 in a 100 odds stock behave. This is why the sector is a 1 in 100 sector. The prior failures all endured this same sort of history, broken promises and mini failures in a slow descent to investing Hades.....If you want to see how a 1 in 100 stock behaves, well............you are experiencing just that in baby biotech Alzheimer's stock avxl at this very minute.
