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Grains Report: Wheat, Rice, Corn and Oats, Soybeans
By: Jack Scoville | March 15, 2023

• WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday as negotiations with Russia to extend the grain corridor deal with Ukraine are just now getting started and are centered on a 60 day extension of the agreement. Reports say that Russian offers continue to hit the world market and world prices. USDA made no changes to the US supply or demand but did cut world ending stocks levels. The funds maintain a huge short position in this market. The problem remains demand as world supplies are not so large and US inventories are less. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, and price weakness could continue. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Russia has a large production and is undercutting most world prices in the international market. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed.. Support is at 661, 656, and 650 May, with resistance at 702, 709, and 722 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 827, 835, and 866 May. Support is at 804, 773, and 770 May, with resistance at 815, 832, and 837 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 814, 808, and 802 March, and resistance is at 853, 860, and 869 May.

• RICE:

General Comments: Rice was sharply higher yesterday and trends have are up on the charts. Demand has been good from domestic sources. Export demand has been uneven but was a marketing year high in the most recent weekly export sales report. Demand has been an issue for the market all year. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports. Planting is active in Texas and southern Louisiana.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1695, 1665, and 1625 May and resistance is at 1724, 1742, and 1746.

• CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday after trading both sides of unchanged. News that China had bought over 600,000 tons of US Corn was positive for higher prices. Oats were higher. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand could improve because of the price differentials. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports, so the US has a chance now to see export demand improve. The Brazil Winter crop is harvested and China has been buying the surplus. The Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. Tt has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Safrinha Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. Brazil sources say that 20% of the Winter crop could be planted outside of the ideal window so yields could be hurt in the end. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens.
Overnight News: China bought 667,000 tons of US Corn
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 607, 603, and 600 May, and resistance is at 622, 630, and 634 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 342, 338, and 333 May, and resistance is at 353, 358, and 361 May.

• SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans were higher yesterday as the Brazil harvest makes it way to the market. Soybean Meal was lower and Soybean Oil was higher. Reports from Brazil show that basis levels there are under pressure due to the large crop being harvested now. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor. Argentine production was cut and could be cut eve n more in coming USDA reports but Brazil production was not and the Brazil crop is coming to export channels and that is bearish to US prices. Soybeans export demand is flowing to Brazil now. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of Soybeans products while the US and Brazil battle for supremacy in Soybeans exports. It remains hot and dry in Argentina and crop conditions are getting worse. Production ideas there are still dropping and the Rosario exchange now estimates production near 27 million tons. Weather is becoming less important now as the harvest is already underway in central and northern Brazil and will spread south soon. Central and northern Brazil have seen harvest operations interrupted with too much rain but the weather is now improving and the harvest pace is increasing. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1458 and 1408 May. Support is at 1484, 1478, and 1476 May, and resistance is at 1516, 1538, and 1549 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 476.00, 472.00, and 466.00 May, and resistance is at 490.00, 498.00, and 502.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 5540, 5510, and 5390 May, with resistance at 5740, 5820, and 5850 May.

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