Alternative Path

[gdl]

Market now has a nice cushion if the PPI comes in HOT. I suspect it will and give up gains made today and then some BUT not a rout. Bigger question mark is how much did the consumer spend last month? That for me might be the more important question since we need the consumer to continue to spend without going into a recession. Spending beyond means is OK with Wall Street. I still believe we play out this drop like the lat, front end was fast and steep, back end filling in the bottom process.

A long shot would be a dramatic drop between here and the 22nd. See little upside extending this move out unless the PPI is really very weak.