Alternative Path

[gdl]

Current excuse for a rally is based on the premise things are so bad the FED has to wait to do anything about inflation. Now that's a sustaining reason for a long and strong bull market? Out of this dilemma there is only two possibilities going forward. One, the actual environment will draw down inflation and the need for further rate hikes becomes moot. Two, inflation will persist and the FED will eventually have to deal with it in earnest.

Using these two premises and marrying it with todays environment TWO is the preemptive winner. Now add the fact that things are already bad as the result of Fed Rate Hikes. We already have a run on Banks and fear of higher rates and deeper problems.

Using all these factors and an already high Market multiple would you accept a long term bullish cycle to start here? I know this is subjective and there are other factors at play but overall the general sense of where we are is correct.

Would YOU fade any rally here?

BTW BITCOIN on F-I-R-E! approaching what i consider the absolute top of possible tops, 27K. it is rallying BECAUSE of the BANK run. Seems everyone finds ways to be optimistic even at completely opposite views at the same time. it's called BIAS! We see what we want and discard the rest. bad news good for stocks and great for Bitcoin.