Alternative Path

[gdl]

The current rally is based on the same premise that a Pandemic is known and the street has already determined it's affect will not be the same as the one 100 years ago. Most remained BULLISH! Now we have the Bank run and assumption that the FED would never raise rates in this environment. Forget the fact that INFLTION is alive and well. Forget that common sense should permanently be discarded. Imagine, as i have, that at todays fed fuds rate Banks are in trouble. Now add the fact that this process is like the roaring 20's where rules were discarded for greed. Lets add the Crypto (Tulip Mania) phase where a billion dollar industry had no rules or regulations thanks to the greased palms of politicians. Using a home application to control billions of financial transactions with no oversight and easily pilfered money.

NOW we have a surge in this one days market move over a relief the CPI was inline with already high expectations for inflation. Common Sense would tell you if the FED actually adds only 25 basis point move it will solve everything and the BULL market will stay strong and long.

All I know is that the run of banks can have the same affect on the run in stock market and this time it is likely to be a blow off top! Human nature trumps reality at the most extreme situations. Pandemic? Who cares. Run on banks over small move in Fed Funds Rate? Just don't raise rates and everything is fine. I HOPE the irrational move is extreme for the next move will be a CRASH! An easy call in a very hard to call market.