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Monday, March 13, 2023 11:50:37 AM
Grains Report: Wheat, Rice, Corn and Oats, Soybeans
By: Jack Scoville | March 13, 2023
• WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower last week in trading in response to the WASDE reports and on reports that Russian offers continue to hit the world market and world prices. USDA made no changes to the US supply or demand but did cut world ending stocks levels. The funds maintain a huge short position in this market. The problem remains demand as world supplies are not so large and US inventories are less as well. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, and price weakness could continue. The war in Ukraine continues, but Russia is expected to allow the grain export program to continue in one form or another. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Russia has a large production and is undercutting most world prices in the international market. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 661, 656, and 650 May, with resistance at 702, 709, and 722 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 715 May. Support is at 773, 770, and 764 May, with resistance at 805, 815, and 832 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 814, 808, and 802 March, and resistance is at 853, 860, and 869 May.
• RICE:
General Comments: Rice was narrowly sharply lower again last week. Trends are down on the charts. The USDA WASDE reports showed reduced export demand but this was already factored into the price structure as the selling had come before the release of the reports. Demand has been good from domestic sources. Export demand has been uneven but was a marketing year high in the most recent weekly export sales report. Demand has been an issue for the market all year. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports. Planting is active in Texas and southern Louisiana.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1561 May. Support is at 1625, 1620, and 1608 May and resistance is at 1666, 1694, and 1714.
• CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower last week on selling tied to the release of the WASDE reports and on forecasts for good weather conditions for the growing season in the US. Oats were higher. USDA left the supply side unchanged in its WASDE reports for the US but cut export demand and also increased US and world ending stocks levels. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America and US demand could improve because of the price differentials. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports, so the US has a chance now to see export demand improve. The Brazil Winter crop is harvested and China has been buying the surplus. The Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. The next Winter crop is going into the ground in good conditions, but it has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. Reports indicate that the weather is now better in central and northern Brazil and that the Corn planting pace is improved. However, Brazil sources say that 20% of the Winter crop could be planted outside of the ideal window so yields could be hurt in the end. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 593 May. Support is at 606, 603, and 600 May, and resistance is at 622, 630, and 634 May. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 342, 338, and 333 May, and resistance is at 353, 358, and 361 May.
• SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower last week on selling tied to the response to the release of the WASDE reports that showed reduced domestic demand but much more export demand. Selling also came from ideas of increased Brazil offers into the world market and reduced US export demand. Reports from Brazil show that basis levels there are under pressure due to the large crop being harvested now. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor. Argentine production was cut but Brazil production was not and the Brazil crop is coming to export channels and that is bearish to US prices. Soybeans export demand is flowing to Brazil now. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of Soybeans products while the US and Brazil battle for supremacy in Soybeans exports. The South American harvest coming to export channels now. It remains hot and dry in Argentina and crop conditions are getting worse. Production ideas there are still dropping and the Rosario exchange now estimates production near 27 million tons. Weather is becoming less important now as the harvest is already underway in central and northern Brazil and will spread south soon. Central and northern Brazil have seen harvest operations interrupted with too much rain but the weather is now improving and the harvest pace is increasing. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1498, 1489, and 1478 May, and resistance is at 1513, 1538, and 1549 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 506.00 and 529.00 May . Support is at 476.00, 472.00, and 466.00 May, and resistance is at 487.00, 498.00, and 502.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 5570 May. Support is at 5510, 5390, and 5280 May, with resistance at 5820, 5850, and 5980 May.
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By: Jack Scoville | March 13, 2023
• WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower last week in trading in response to the WASDE reports and on reports that Russian offers continue to hit the world market and world prices. USDA made no changes to the US supply or demand but did cut world ending stocks levels. The funds maintain a huge short position in this market. The problem remains demand as world supplies are not so large and US inventories are less as well. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, and price weakness could continue. The war in Ukraine continues, but Russia is expected to allow the grain export program to continue in one form or another. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Russia has a large production and is undercutting most world prices in the international market. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 661, 656, and 650 May, with resistance at 702, 709, and 722 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 715 May. Support is at 773, 770, and 764 May, with resistance at 805, 815, and 832 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 814, 808, and 802 March, and resistance is at 853, 860, and 869 May.
• RICE:
General Comments: Rice was narrowly sharply lower again last week. Trends are down on the charts. The USDA WASDE reports showed reduced export demand but this was already factored into the price structure as the selling had come before the release of the reports. Demand has been good from domestic sources. Export demand has been uneven but was a marketing year high in the most recent weekly export sales report. Demand has been an issue for the market all year. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports. Planting is active in Texas and southern Louisiana.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1561 May. Support is at 1625, 1620, and 1608 May and resistance is at 1666, 1694, and 1714.
• CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower last week on selling tied to the release of the WASDE reports and on forecasts for good weather conditions for the growing season in the US. Oats were higher. USDA left the supply side unchanged in its WASDE reports for the US but cut export demand and also increased US and world ending stocks levels. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America and US demand could improve because of the price differentials. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports, so the US has a chance now to see export demand improve. The Brazil Winter crop is harvested and China has been buying the surplus. The Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. The next Winter crop is going into the ground in good conditions, but it has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. Reports indicate that the weather is now better in central and northern Brazil and that the Corn planting pace is improved. However, Brazil sources say that 20% of the Winter crop could be planted outside of the ideal window so yields could be hurt in the end. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 593 May. Support is at 606, 603, and 600 May, and resistance is at 622, 630, and 634 May. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 342, 338, and 333 May, and resistance is at 353, 358, and 361 May.
• SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower last week on selling tied to the response to the release of the WASDE reports that showed reduced domestic demand but much more export demand. Selling also came from ideas of increased Brazil offers into the world market and reduced US export demand. Reports from Brazil show that basis levels there are under pressure due to the large crop being harvested now. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor. Argentine production was cut but Brazil production was not and the Brazil crop is coming to export channels and that is bearish to US prices. Soybeans export demand is flowing to Brazil now. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of Soybeans products while the US and Brazil battle for supremacy in Soybeans exports. The South American harvest coming to export channels now. It remains hot and dry in Argentina and crop conditions are getting worse. Production ideas there are still dropping and the Rosario exchange now estimates production near 27 million tons. Weather is becoming less important now as the harvest is already underway in central and northern Brazil and will spread south soon. Central and northern Brazil have seen harvest operations interrupted with too much rain but the weather is now improving and the harvest pace is increasing. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1498, 1489, and 1478 May, and resistance is at 1513, 1538, and 1549 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 506.00 and 529.00 May . Support is at 476.00, 472.00, and 466.00 May, and resistance is at 487.00, 498.00, and 502.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 5570 May. Support is at 5510, 5390, and 5280 May, with resistance at 5820, 5850, and 5980 May.
Read Full Story »»»
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