Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[JRoon71]

My guess is that a BP will take a flyer on Amarin for a discount to its TRUE value (less than $15), run with it in Europe, and then work to improve prospects in U.S. through new formulation and/or litigation. Fortunately, a BP will have the money, experience, time, and willingness to do this. UNfortunately, this will likely not be reflected in a BO price, as none of it is a certainty.

At the same time, they will certainly try to capitalize on BRAVE indication (hoping there are positive results) as well as any potential drug combinations.

IMHO, Amarin likely lost any leverage when it didn't sell after REDUCE-It. They gambled on having massive cashflow to provide whatever it needed going forward, and assumed they would parlay that into a big BO number.

But once Du happened, that was the nail in the coffin, because it effectively tied Amarin's hands behind its back. It doesn't have the cashflow to take advantage of its own drug or defend it, and BP's know this, so GIA was its ONLY option (absent selling for a massive discount).

So....any long-term positive financial outcome (ie. above $10-15 BO) is likely going to accrue to the BP shareholders, not the sellers (us).

And I'm not sure that there is much Denner can do to change that, other than simply push the sale faster.