Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Nukemtiltheyglow]

TTE; I'm afraid we disagree. Here's my logic using only stock price indication and doing a wag
of the value of PCSK9 at the time of the Medco sale; I really don't like to predict the price AD will fetch for Amarin but here goes.

From the following graph we can see that MDCO hit a low in 2019 of around $15, We know that MDCO priced out at around $85 that's a 6x multiple (approx.) .
https://www.thestreet.com/quote/MDCO

Now, price in the value of PCSK9 and it's overall marketability. I'm guessing there's a number of estimates out there? Here's one; $1.1B
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-pcsk9-inhibitors-market-to-grow-rapidly-during-the-forecast-period-with-a-cagr-of-15-1-analyzes-delveinsight-301545038.html

And we're saying Vascepa could get to $2B? For a drug that is cheaper and less intrusive (semi-annual injection). And yet Novartis ponied up $6B?

Most of us who take Vascepa know it works and it works in ways we don't realize it's working? In the right hands, Vascepa could become a Blockbuster drug. The potential is there, Denner just has to package it correctly.

IMHO Denner is not in it to double his money, with MDCO didn't he invest at around $24, so that's a 3-4X bagger. IDK, I just think most of us are selling Vascepa way too short. I look at this as a Warner-Lambert and Pfizer is sniffing & snooping, then pouncing.....!

I'm envisioning at least a $6B buyout price, which puts us at around $15 - 16 pps. Denner gets his 4x and we're all happy as clams. This is all without a bidding war.

Keep in mind that Inclirsiran (MDCO/Novartis) is not the only PCSK9 inhibitor in the market. There's 3 or more competitors. Vascepa is without any peers. Generics can't be considered a peer drug, although the market doesn't indicate that.

I like my chances at fetching upwards of $20 pps. Besides I was right about Sarissa's landslide win wasn't I :D)? I guessed we'd hit 82% I was off, I think Raf beat me on that prediction.