Commodity Futures Trading

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Grains Report: Wheat, Rice, Corn and Oats, Soybeans
By: Jack Scoville | March 7, 2023

• WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday on more reports that Russian offers continue to hit the world market and world prices. The funds maintain a huge short position in this market. The problem remains demand as world supplies are not so large and US inventories are less as well. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, and price weakness could continue. The war in Ukraine continues, but Russia is expected to allow the grain export program to continue in one form or another. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Russia has a large production and is undercutting most world prices in the international market. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with no objectives, Support is at 692, 685, and 668 May, with resistance at 709, 722, and 738 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 794, 788, and 782 May, with resistance at 815, 832, and 837 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 860, 857, and 850 March, and resistance is at 880, 887, and 892 May.

• RICE:

General Comments: Rice was sharply lower and closed near the bottom of the recent trading range on weak export sales. Demand has been good from domestic sources. Export demand has been uneven. Demand has been an issue for the market all year. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1689, 1683, and 1670 May and resistance is at 1714, 1724, and 1742

• CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn closed a little lower yesterday and continued to test low levels not seen since late last year on ideas of weak demand. Oats closed lower and at new lows for the move. The export inspections report released Monday afternoon showed solid exports but the US remains far behind the pace to meet USDA targets. The lack of demand has been a reason for all the selling in the last week. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America and US demand could improve because of the price differentials. Japan and unknown destinations were buyers in the daily system yesterday. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports, so the US has a chance now to see export demand improve. . The Brazil Winter crop is harvested and China has been buying the surplus. The Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. The next Winter crop is going into the ground in good conditions, but it has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. Reports indicate that the weather is now better in central and northern Brazil and that the Corn planting pace is much improved. However, Brazil sources say that 20% of the Winter crop could be planted outside of the ideal window so yields could be hurt in the end.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 630, 622, and 615 May, and resistance is at 645, 648, and 652 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 312 May. Support is at 322, 316, and 320 May, and resistance is at 328, 334, and 338 May.

• SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans and the Soybean Meal were higher last week on speculative buying tied to the South American weather outlook and despite a weak export sales report that showed Soybeans sales at a marketing year low. Soybean Oil closed lower. Soybeans export demand is flowing to Brazil now. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of Soybeans products while the US and Brazil battle for supremacy in Soybeans exports. The South American harvest coming to export channels in the near future. It remains hot and dry in Argentina and crop conditions are getting worse. Weather is becoming less important now as the harvest is already underway in central and northern Brazil and will spread south soon. Central and northern Brazil have seen harvest operations interrupted with too much rain but the weather is now improving and the harvest pace is increasing. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed . Support is at 1525, 1508, and 1498 May, and resistance is at 1538, 1549, and 1560 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 506.00 and 529.00 May . Support is at 488.00, 483.00, and 476.00 May, and resistance is at 496.00, 499.00, and 502.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5970, 5900, and 5870 May, with resistance at 6220, 6240, and 6380 May.

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