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Thursday, March 02, 2023 2:29:54 PM
Grains Report: Wheat, Rice, Corn and Oats, Soybeans
By: Jack Scoville | March 2, 2023
• WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower again yesterday but Winter Wheat prides recovered to close a little higher as Spring Wheat prices held lower. It was a relatively narrow range day, but it is possible that Wheat is trying to find a bottom at this time. The Chicago SRW contract has been the weakest and that indicates fund selling. The funds now have a huge short position in this market. The problem remains demand as world supplies are not so large and US inventories are less as well. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, and price weakness could continue. The war in Ukraine continues, but Russia is expected to allow the grain export program to continue in one form or another. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Russia has a large production and is undercutting most world prices in the international market. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry condition. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with no obj3ectives, Support is at 702, 692, and 680 May, with resistance at 721, 738, and 742 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 807, 800, and 794 May, with resistance at 837, 853, and 862 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 857, 852, and 844 March, and resistance is at 871, 880, and 887 May.
• RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower early yesterday, but then found new buying to push higher and close at the highs of the day. It was a dramatic day. Demand has been good from domestic sources. Export demand has been uneven. Demand has been an issue for the market all year. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1742, 1724, and 1714 May and resistance is at 1762, 1773, and 1779 May.
• CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday after making new lows for the move. It was a great recovery for a market that really needed one and could be a sign that the selling is over and a correction higher has begun. Oats closed a little lower. The export inspections report released Monday afternoon showed bad exports once again and the US is falling far behind the pace to meet USDA targets. The lack of demand has been a reason for all the selling in the last seven days. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America and US demand could improve because of the price differentials. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports, so the US has a chance now to see export demand improve. Brazil has been hanging on for its Summer crop although losses are now being reported. The situation is now more stable in southern Brazil and northern Argentina after recent rains, but the situation in central and southern Argentina remains stressed. Argentina has suffered through some extreme drought and losses could be large. The Brazil Winter crop is harvested and China has been buying the surplus. The Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. The next Winter crop is going into the ground in good conditions, but it has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. Reports indicate that the weather is now better in central and northern Brazil and that the Corn planting pace is much improved. However, Brazil sources say that 20% of the Winter crop could be planted outside of the ideal window so yields could be hurt in the end. China released its PMI data yesterday and the PMI weas above expectations. It was considered positive for new demand potential from China.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 628, 615, and 612 May, and resistance is at 637, 645, and 648 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 327 and 312 May. Support is at 328, 325, and 322 May, and resistance is at 342, 345, and 348 May.
• SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower on what appeared to be fund selling to start the day, then recovered to close higher. It could be a sign that the selling seen over the last seven sessions has run its course and a correction higher has begun. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of Soybeans products while the US and Brazil battle for supremacy in Soybeans exports. The South American harvest coming to export channels in the near future and the lack of exports for the US has hurt the price action and created down trends for Soybeans and sideways to down trends for the products. It remains hot and dry in Argentina and crop conditions are getting worse. Weather is becoming less important now as the harvest is already underway in central and northern Brazil and will spread south soon. Sothern Brazil and northern Argentina are getting enough rain to stabilize conditions and production losses but central and southern Argentina remain very dry. Central and northern Brazil have seen harvest operations interrupted with too much rain but the weather is now improving and the harvest pace is increasing. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed. Chinese demand is expected to improve in the world market and especially in Brazil with the country now open and many starting to move beyond Covid and create life and opportunity again.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1458 and 1408 May. Support is at 1476, 1472, and 1466 May, and resistance is at 1500, 1510, and 1522 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 462.00 and 446.00 March. Support is at 465.00, 462.00, and 457.00 May, and resistance is at 472.00, 474.00, and 478.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5970, 5900, and 5870 May, with resistance at 6120, 63240, and 6380 May.
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By: Jack Scoville | March 2, 2023
• WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower again yesterday but Winter Wheat prides recovered to close a little higher as Spring Wheat prices held lower. It was a relatively narrow range day, but it is possible that Wheat is trying to find a bottom at this time. The Chicago SRW contract has been the weakest and that indicates fund selling. The funds now have a huge short position in this market. The problem remains demand as world supplies are not so large and US inventories are less as well. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, and price weakness could continue. The war in Ukraine continues, but Russia is expected to allow the grain export program to continue in one form or another. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Russia has a large production and is undercutting most world prices in the international market. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry condition. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with no obj3ectives, Support is at 702, 692, and 680 May, with resistance at 721, 738, and 742 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 807, 800, and 794 May, with resistance at 837, 853, and 862 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 857, 852, and 844 March, and resistance is at 871, 880, and 887 May.
• RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower early yesterday, but then found new buying to push higher and close at the highs of the day. It was a dramatic day. Demand has been good from domestic sources. Export demand has been uneven. Demand has been an issue for the market all year. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1742, 1724, and 1714 May and resistance is at 1762, 1773, and 1779 May.
• CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday after making new lows for the move. It was a great recovery for a market that really needed one and could be a sign that the selling is over and a correction higher has begun. Oats closed a little lower. The export inspections report released Monday afternoon showed bad exports once again and the US is falling far behind the pace to meet USDA targets. The lack of demand has been a reason for all the selling in the last seven days. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America and US demand could improve because of the price differentials. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports, so the US has a chance now to see export demand improve. Brazil has been hanging on for its Summer crop although losses are now being reported. The situation is now more stable in southern Brazil and northern Argentina after recent rains, but the situation in central and southern Argentina remains stressed. Argentina has suffered through some extreme drought and losses could be large. The Brazil Winter crop is harvested and China has been buying the surplus. The Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. The next Winter crop is going into the ground in good conditions, but it has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. Reports indicate that the weather is now better in central and northern Brazil and that the Corn planting pace is much improved. However, Brazil sources say that 20% of the Winter crop could be planted outside of the ideal window so yields could be hurt in the end. China released its PMI data yesterday and the PMI weas above expectations. It was considered positive for new demand potential from China.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 628, 615, and 612 May, and resistance is at 637, 645, and 648 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 327 and 312 May. Support is at 328, 325, and 322 May, and resistance is at 342, 345, and 348 May.
• SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower on what appeared to be fund selling to start the day, then recovered to close higher. It could be a sign that the selling seen over the last seven sessions has run its course and a correction higher has begun. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of Soybeans products while the US and Brazil battle for supremacy in Soybeans exports. The South American harvest coming to export channels in the near future and the lack of exports for the US has hurt the price action and created down trends for Soybeans and sideways to down trends for the products. It remains hot and dry in Argentina and crop conditions are getting worse. Weather is becoming less important now as the harvest is already underway in central and northern Brazil and will spread south soon. Sothern Brazil and northern Argentina are getting enough rain to stabilize conditions and production losses but central and southern Argentina remain very dry. Central and northern Brazil have seen harvest operations interrupted with too much rain but the weather is now improving and the harvest pace is increasing. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed. Chinese demand is expected to improve in the world market and especially in Brazil with the country now open and many starting to move beyond Covid and create life and opportunity again.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1458 and 1408 May. Support is at 1476, 1472, and 1466 May, and resistance is at 1500, 1510, and 1522 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 462.00 and 446.00 March. Support is at 465.00, 462.00, and 457.00 May, and resistance is at 472.00, 474.00, and 478.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5970, 5900, and 5870 May, with resistance at 6120, 63240, and 6380 May.
Read Full Story »»»
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