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Tuesday, February 21, 2023 11:22:42 AM
Grains Report: Wheat, Rice, Corn and Oats, Soybeans
By: Jack Scoville | February 21, 2023
• WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed last week, with SRW and HRW futures in Chicago a little lower but Minneapolis Spring futures unchanged for the week. News that Russia has launched a new offensive in Ukraine provided much of thew support this week. Russia appears to be sending three divisions across the border to fight and it looks as though this could be a major operation for the Russian army. Wire report now suggest that Russia has now committed almost its entire army to the war. Fears of deliveries of Wheat from the Black Sea will be cut significantly are surfacing again. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Russia is said to be plotting a huge new invasion of Ukraine that could prevent farmers in Ukraine from harvesting Wheat and planting Corn. Russia has a large production and is undercutting most world prices in the international market. However, Russian production estimates have dropped recently. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia. Ukraine is also looking for new business for its crops and Russia is aggressive in the world market as it looks for cash to fund the war.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed, Support is at 757, 742, and 729 March, with resistance at 776, 784, and 799 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 866, 859, and 850 March, with resistance at 880, 9893, and 916 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 911, 907, and 897 March, and resistance is at 467, 942, and 946 March.
• RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower last week but held to the recent trading range. Reports indicate that the farmers have been selling and ideas are that they might dump on the market if they think a big crop is coming at the end of the new growing season that is now getting ready to start in southern growing areas. Demand has been good from domestic sources. Export demand has been uneven. Demand has been an issue for the market all year. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports and solid for domestic uses.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1746, 1735, and 1729 March and resistance is at 1764, 1777, and 1790 March.
• CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower last week, but Corn held well as demand is slowly improving. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America and US demand has improved because of the price differentials. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports, so the US has chance now to see export demand improve more than it has already. The export demand remains well behind the pace to make USDA objectives. Brazil has been hanging on for its Summer crop although losses are now being reported. Argentina has suffered through some extreme drought and losses could be large. The Brazil Winter crop is harvested and China has been buying the surplus. The Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. The next Winter crop is going into the ground in good conditions, but it has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. There are concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. China is now moving rapidly to open the economy and allow people to move around with no lockdowns so the demand could start to improve
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 672, 669, and 666 March, and resistance is at 682, 689, and 693 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 361, 348, and 335 March, and resistance is at 368, 370, and 375 March.
• SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower last week, but Soybean Oil closed a little higher. The market is weaker in anticipation of the South American harvest coming to export channels in the near term. It remains hot and dry in Argentina and southern Brazil and crop conditions are getting worse. However, weather is becoming less important now as the harvest is already underway in central and northern Brazil and will spread south soon. Central and northern Brazil have seen harvest operations interrupted with too much rain. Soybean Meal saw strong weekly export sales as Argentina is having to withdraw from the market for Soy products sales due to the drought in the country and the fact that they have already sold a lot of Soybeans into the world market. They are now buying from Brazil. The harvest in Brazil is slowly expanding in central and northern areas. These areas have seen too much rain and the harvest has been slow. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed. Ideas that Chinese demand will improve, but this could take a few more weeks as a very large part of the population now has Covid. This has delayed a robust economic return for the country.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1517, 1511, and 1506 March, and resistance is at 1537, 1545, and 1556 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 488.00, 478.00, and 472.00 March, and resistance is at 500.00, 508.00, and 514.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6070, 5960, and 5890 March, with resistance at 6240, 6360, and 6420 March.
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By: Jack Scoville | February 21, 2023
• WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed last week, with SRW and HRW futures in Chicago a little lower but Minneapolis Spring futures unchanged for the week. News that Russia has launched a new offensive in Ukraine provided much of thew support this week. Russia appears to be sending three divisions across the border to fight and it looks as though this could be a major operation for the Russian army. Wire report now suggest that Russia has now committed almost its entire army to the war. Fears of deliveries of Wheat from the Black Sea will be cut significantly are surfacing again. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Russia is said to be plotting a huge new invasion of Ukraine that could prevent farmers in Ukraine from harvesting Wheat and planting Corn. Russia has a large production and is undercutting most world prices in the international market. However, Russian production estimates have dropped recently. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia. Ukraine is also looking for new business for its crops and Russia is aggressive in the world market as it looks for cash to fund the war.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed, Support is at 757, 742, and 729 March, with resistance at 776, 784, and 799 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 866, 859, and 850 March, with resistance at 880, 9893, and 916 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 911, 907, and 897 March, and resistance is at 467, 942, and 946 March.
• RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower last week but held to the recent trading range. Reports indicate that the farmers have been selling and ideas are that they might dump on the market if they think a big crop is coming at the end of the new growing season that is now getting ready to start in southern growing areas. Demand has been good from domestic sources. Export demand has been uneven. Demand has been an issue for the market all year. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports and solid for domestic uses.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1746, 1735, and 1729 March and resistance is at 1764, 1777, and 1790 March.
• CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower last week, but Corn held well as demand is slowly improving. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America and US demand has improved because of the price differentials. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports, so the US has chance now to see export demand improve more than it has already. The export demand remains well behind the pace to make USDA objectives. Brazil has been hanging on for its Summer crop although losses are now being reported. Argentina has suffered through some extreme drought and losses could be large. The Brazil Winter crop is harvested and China has been buying the surplus. The Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. The next Winter crop is going into the ground in good conditions, but it has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. There are concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. China is now moving rapidly to open the economy and allow people to move around with no lockdowns so the demand could start to improve
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 672, 669, and 666 March, and resistance is at 682, 689, and 693 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 361, 348, and 335 March, and resistance is at 368, 370, and 375 March.
• SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower last week, but Soybean Oil closed a little higher. The market is weaker in anticipation of the South American harvest coming to export channels in the near term. It remains hot and dry in Argentina and southern Brazil and crop conditions are getting worse. However, weather is becoming less important now as the harvest is already underway in central and northern Brazil and will spread south soon. Central and northern Brazil have seen harvest operations interrupted with too much rain. Soybean Meal saw strong weekly export sales as Argentina is having to withdraw from the market for Soy products sales due to the drought in the country and the fact that they have already sold a lot of Soybeans into the world market. They are now buying from Brazil. The harvest in Brazil is slowly expanding in central and northern areas. These areas have seen too much rain and the harvest has been slow. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed. Ideas that Chinese demand will improve, but this could take a few more weeks as a very large part of the population now has Covid. This has delayed a robust economic return for the country.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1517, 1511, and 1506 March, and resistance is at 1537, 1545, and 1556 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 488.00, 478.00, and 472.00 March, and resistance is at 500.00, 508.00, and 514.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6070, 5960, and 5890 March, with resistance at 6240, 6360, and 6420 March.
Read Full Story »»»
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