Alternative Path

[gdl]

From January 9th - the first announcement of a SARS virus in China till February 20th the stock market was virtually unaffected. From that first day on we knew with certainty how such a virus spreads and what the likelihood it would become a pandemic. WELL before March 20th we also knew with certainty it is going world wide with knows deaths and contagious fast spreading.

I could NOT find ONE ARTICLE on any technical analysis that warned of the crash. NOT ONE! if you observe an asteroid about to hit NYC the implication was obvious. NOT with the pandemic. We not only didn't consider the implication we ignored the actual event 100 years prior. Imagine an asteroid hits NYC 100 years ago and the one about to hit was ignored? Absurd isn't it BUT it happened that way!

I ask ANYONE to enlighten me on the technical prowess that forewarned of such a crash. You see TODAY we have a spike in inflation not seen in 40 years. Disinflation for the last 40 years engrained in everything we do. A full year after numerous hikes Powell give us a speech on disinflation going forward yet the exact opposite is shown with real data points. In fact an accelerated move started January, so much so that we can't even comprehend the implications. JUST LIKE THE PANDEMIC. How can we have a spike in economic activity one year after the Fed hiked to a 40 year high? I am standing here somewhere between January 9th 2020 and March 20th 2020. Maybe this time is different? maybe the INFLATION DATTA in January was a fluke? A mistake?

I can't believe we can repeat the same mistakes over and over. But we are still a primitive animal in the geologic scheme of things. Hopefully we have TIME to grow.