Alternative Path

[gdl]

Just added the Housing Market Index. And drum roll please.... shot up in FEBRAUARY! The last bastion of an immediate recession was HOUSING!

IF that shows a reversal trend back up the FED not only has to raise rates 2 times with a measly 25 basis point move but should EASILY break OVER 6% on Fed Funds rate by then.

I know this dim witted market needs to see actual proof of what happens when a pandemic strikes so i guess they need to witness for themselves the devastation a 6% Fed Funds will cause.

Market taking the news with a yawn but the DOLLAR has no choice but to rise rise and rise again. Yields. well lets just say they are so undervalued that at one point a light bulb will go off and so will the rates go off their charts.

This can take a while to form a cash setup or it could happen soon if the next batch of numbers confirm that January JOBS was no fluke. Gee I think in simple terms. Like why is inflation going to moderate when the consumer is BUYING into it? In a BIG WAY! ALL we need to place the last piece of the puzzle is HOUSING. If that also ignores the rising prices baby we are in for it.

I warned forever that this cycle is a known pattern every 40 years. The perfect storm of pandemic, free money flown by the FED during that time and now a surge in economic activity. Add the 2 year delay with Chinas opening and we got a recipe for DISASTER!

Big question: WHEN? Do we have to wait for the FED to raise to 6%? maybe. I stated in my bipolar report months ago that we can either crash early in year or mid-year. The longer we wait the more dramatic the drop. 1987 here we come!