BIAS always determines how you view the world. Perma-bears and perma-bulls have an agenda to prove they are right. it supersedes all other considerations. ONLY a very rare person comes along with no bias and only uses a system with tweaks over a long period of time. That's usually why Pollyanna's capitalize on the Bull moves and Cassandras on the Bear. They lose in opposing camps. There is a decidedly strong statistical analysis that shows most people are optimists and see things in the best light.
I know my faults. I see things develop in a negative fashion way before it actually takes place. I am a pessimist and have radar that tunes into this trait. I also know this year will go down as one of the steepest drops in history. We have just entered the Catch-22 scenario. Without a weak labor market the FED will do what it MUST. The housing market and inverted yield curve has historically been pretty darn good at determining a recession. IF we do get one this historically tight labor market should unravel, the earnings picture, while currently weak should turn decidedly negative. BUT the CATCH-22 is INFLATION. It will either exacerbate or relieve the pain somewhat. I believe in natural cyclical patterns and one is Inflation, a 40 year cycle. I presented the 12 points of concern already.
My ONLY dilemma is when does the street realize this. Like a known pandemic and known financial pattern that was completely ignored for many weeks. Mind boggling but then again we had a president that was the most corrupt incompetent destructive force on this nation to this day and is the front runner for the Republican nominee. No amount of technical prowess, scientific achievements, or learnt mistakes from the past will change this behavior.
Immediate market behavior. Irrational but that has no timeline to correct. Triggers. Only one I see as immediate is the CPI/PPI reports. Everyone agrees. Powell a few weeks ago reiterated the Disinflation argument. Is this PROOF that the CPI come Tuesday is in line or tamer than expected? I have concluded the exact opposite based on Januarys readings so far on manufacturing and jobs. Is there any argument ANYONE is using to determine the Tuesday results?
In conclusion: A decidedly LOWER reading Tuesday will allow for a surge in stock prices. In line would be muddled and higher will start the possible cash scenario. We are at a precarious position. A continued spike rise in prices even if temporary or the start of a long deep drop.