The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[n4807g]

Great Article...must read !!!! Make sure you read "Reality Check" if nothing else. We are delusional in thinking the transformation from fossil to electric can happen by 2050. More ridiculous is the assertion that ICE cars can be quickly phased out........

The fossil-fuel elephant in the electrification room
https://www.mining.com/web/the-fossil-fuel-elephant-in-the-electrification-room/

Without copper there is NO electricification

Commodities consultancy Wood Mackenzie estimated that nearly 10 million tonnes (9.7Mt) of new copper supply will be needed over the next decade, from projects that have yet to be put into development.

As we have pointed out, it’s the equivalent of putting a new Escondida copper mine, the biggest in the world, into production each year.

There are really only three ways for the mining industry to get this additional metal. First, they can increase production from existing mines; this often involves “going underground”, digging beneath the existing open pit to access more ore. An expansion to the existing concentrator or building a new one, is sometimes needed.

Second, they can expand their mines laterally, going after resources that weren’t part of the initial mine plan because they were less accessible, or un-economic. Third, they can explore for new mineral deposits, either internally, or working with junior mining companies, which have the exploration expertise to bring a deposit forward to the point when it can be sold to a major. Obviously option three, known as greenfield exploration, is more difficult, costly, and carries higher risk than options one and two, called brownfield exploration.

Over the past 10 years, greenfield additions to copper reserves have slowed dramatically. S&P Global estimates that new discoveries averaged nearly 50Mt annually between 1990 and 2010. Since then, new discoveries have fallen by 80%.

With so few new projects in the works, and as existing sources dry up, mine supply growth will peak around 2024, resulting in a historic deficit of 10 million tons (11,023,100 tonnes) in 2035.

The fact that these minerals are condemned to stay in the ground for the next 20 years, while the Biden administration makes all sorts of promises to meet green energy targets, is a policy failure at the highest levels. Biden has backed off his 2020 presidential campaign endorsement of the mining industry. Instead, the president has signaled he prefers to rely on allies for EV metals, such as Canada, Australia and Brazil.