Steady - How long will it take to get to full Alz revenue rate, after approval?
I think the other interesting question is how long after Alz approval could Anavex see first revenue? This question is very interesting because, with revenue comes stable SP, and increasing SP. Both important to investors. So, first lets look at the question of initial revenue.
Initial revenue will be highly dependent on how much groundwork Anavex can get done before approval. I remember Biogen was dosing people within two weeks of approval, so that is probably the absolute minimum starting time. The question is how close can Anavex come to that? Anavex does not have MRI constraints, and will be cheaper than Adu($57k), so there would potentially be more patients signing up for Blarc without insurance. The major hurdle will be distribution. Anavex has been planning on doing distribution for Rett themselves. How far along will they be with this, if/when they get Alz approval?. Would they be able to handle the first few thousand Alz patient drug requests, until the 'big' wholesaler/distributor comes on line? Signing a contract, partnering, with a wholesaler/distributor is a major hurdle. The wholesaler agreement could be setup within weeks to a few months. As I said, work on this could be started before approval. So initial Alz revenue could be within a few weeks, to a few months after approval.
The limiting factor in getting to US FULL Alz revenue rate, will be getting approval and setup with Medicare. They are the largest insurer in the US of people in the usual age range for Alz. This will be the biggest hurdle, and most time consuming one. Gov processes, like Medicare arrangements, I have no idea, maybe 6 months. Just a SWAG on my part would be 4 months to a year, to get setup with Medicare. Anyone with experience here, or better estimate would be welcome! So then, my estimate to reach FULL alz revenue rate would be 4 months to a year.
