I am as convinced of a crash as i was when the overseas Pandemic was announced. it was inevitable and we even had a 100 year old chart to follow. yet we didn't. Most shrugged it off with insane excuses. The start of last year, same thing. We project a Pollyanna approach to everything. Transitory inflation. Now after the bottoming pattern late October everyone is not only convinced inflation is dying they actually think we will hit a sweet spot for earning. ONE DAYS data proved them wrong. CRYSTAL CLEAR the path we are on and i can see images of the Pandemic crossing the ocean.
Facts: Earnings for the last 6 to 8 quarters dramatic change. Inflation spike no fluke not transitory. TODAY we got January data and it showed a US economy surging back. this on top of the worry of inflation. We just opened up the Chinese market and that also shows a huge spike in demand. Manufacturing and new orders SPIKED in January! Jobs market at unheard of employment strength and longevity. Jobs begging for hire once again hit 11 Million. Next week there is (thank goodness) no economic reports due. I rule out a crash next week. SB easy call.
The variety of the next drop might look like the crash of 29. Phytologically we went from despair to hope to glee over a Goldilocks scenario dead ahead. Turning into a nightmare. There is absolutely NO WAY this economy can survive another round of rate hikes. Burry the famous hedge fund guy critically issued a SELL tweet and took it down. What the FED was thinking to placate this market is mindboggling.
SPX 3200, the unfinished target, is no longer the final target IMO. I expect an initial drop to hit there and possibly bounce off of but before this year is out 2500 on SPX seems more likely.
*** This year should be an historic drop and with it the start of the end for our economy. *** Too dramatic? Too impossible to comprehend? We have a man that currently leads the GOP for re-election after his exposed crimes and inhuman behavior. Not only attempting a coup but wanted his own VP killed. If he lead the charge that day it would have changed NOTHING! the man walks on water. If we can live today in the current political environment we certainly can cause our own demise economically also.
Count down for the CRASH as today marks the start of such countdown. The button has been hit and the clock ticks.
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