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Re: tedpeele post# 131710

Sunday, 01/29/2023 7:48:26 PM

Sunday, January 29, 2023 7:48:26 PM

Post# of 201594
post 104870 Kerrisdale response to KCC:

What optical modulation technology do you believe will have the most success over the next decade?

Kerrisdale:

KCCO, that's a good question. For now, as Bechtolsheim discussed, the only technology that's out of the lab is TFLN. That said, one of the things we tried to get across in our report is that we're not so sure that new modulation technologies and higher baud rates are necessary. If you keep miniaturizing silicon, you can end up fitting a lot of little lasers and modulators in one package, and transmit the data over hundreds of channels instead of more quickly over a single channel.

Rich LaRiv has tried to say that that's a power problem, but we really don't think it is. First of all, the power can be addressed by modifying the laser instead of the modulator, and there are plenty of companies working on that (this was also a big part of the reason Lumentum acquired Neophotonics). But we would also point out Bechtosheim's key statement at the end of that interview:

"Today, with the optics power, the difference is like a 20 percent to 25 percent savings at the optics component level or the module level, but at the level of the datacenter, this is 1 percent or lower. Out of the total power, including servers and storage and switches, the optics are just not that big of a driver." [emphasis ours]


Power is mostly a red herring in this debate.


My philosophy is to just be honest and balanced, and let the market decide if it agrees or not.

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