Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[frrol]

There's no secret result of wonderfulness strategically hidden by the company to burn the shorts or thwart any conspiring cabals. Biotechs put their best foot forward on TLRs, for good reason. They're trying to sustain interest and momentum for their experimental drug's development. If something is conspicuously ommitted from a TLR, it raises questions. The superior alternative is to be transparent about the results. It supports management credibility, reflects reality, meets investor expectations, and provides the information everyone requires and expects. Anavex fails often in this regard. It's disappointing.

The overall ADL mean change was conspicuously missing. It likely had some efficacy signal but not enough to meet statistical significance. This is not tragic, but ommitting and avoiding it creates unnecessary problems. So too ommitting any time series charts, and the number of t-test tails. And supportive data for the ORs. Not publically pre-specifying the ORs as "outcomes" is also problematic, and bizarre given the recent Rett AUC fumble and curve disclosure issues.

The company finally provided a time series charts for CDR, but it does not fully support what management says about the endpoint, since it shows good signal but not reliable superiority to lecanemab. Missling continues to damage his credibility, further demonstrating the need for transparency. One shouldn't take biotech management claims at face value ("trust, but verify"); with Missling, this is an imperative. It's unfortunate.

Blarcamesine is likely a viable piece of the AD therapy puzzle for many patients. But the certainty of that is currently less than it could be. The reception of our problematic TLR reflects that. This is on management.