Your explanation that EW has multiple paths it can follow doesn't help the investor one bit. In fact your analysis states we can either have a new bull market or fail here and plunge longer and deeper than most would think. GREAT! After over a month "I" could have and did say the same thing. In that tine NO ONE has come out and placed ODDS on which path we take. WHY? is there nothing that anyone can do to determine if our economy is at a crossroads or about to launch into the stratosphere? Ridiculous. Seems ILLOGICAL that a trillion dollar market based on purely economic projections on earnings can't decide if we are about to fall into the abyss or nirvana.
I presented this exact dilemma many months ago. How is it so impossible to "see" what is right in front of us? You would think that the slew of data points and technical analysis would be able to determine such a simple understanding at such a critical level. is it our own bias and emotional misdirection that prevents us from answering this question?
let me put it in more stark terms. Rowing down a river and we come to a fork in the path where we determine one will lead to smooth waters for miles and miles while the other leads to a waterfall. is there really no way to tell which is which? In fact there are. we can determine the current of both paths, the strength of each path, the turbulence coming closer to each path.
So what are the CURRENT clues. It is not as if the past has no bearing on the future.
Excerpts from Pretzel:
"Keep in mind that the most bearish count here is exceedingly bearish, because if blue 1/A is 1 (and not A, or C of an expanded flat; too early to say for sure, hence the "?" from Dec. 16), then the market is at the beginning of a nested third wave decline that's likely to become the most significant and rapid sell-off this bear market has yet seen. Third waves are often "crash" waves."
Million dollar question: What or when can we know besides after the fact. if we break above 4120? nope. If we break below 3765 is that the "TELL"? EW alone can't tell us. I have MY theory that dates back a while.
A nested third wave here? if so how high can this go and how long? What finally determines which chart to follow?
