Send PM
Followers 88
Posts 7258
Boards Moderated 1
Alias Born 04/22/2010


Re: None

Monday, 01/16/2023 9:01:20 AM

Monday, January 16, 2023 9:01:20 AM

Post# of 132514
Market closed today

Friday Night the shorts adjusted up the count to about 20.1 Million, yesterday morning it was 19.9 million shorts and the price was $5.75 so even though 200k of the 500k shares traded yesterday were shorts borrowing shares and selling trying to put the brakes on this rise but it jump to $6.14. The shorts are back over that 20 Million number, can you imagine if they bought 200k shares yesterday instead of selling because one day that will happen. Do the math on 20 Million shares recovered at 200k shares per day is,,, 100 Trading days, using 5 days per week that is 20 weeks or 5 MONTHS of sustained buying. It is so important that you guys understand just how many shares 20 Million short shares are to buy when the longs here are holding them tight.

Now look at what happened in December some in the U.S. that were down on the year 2022 sold shares in December to write off a loss on their taxes with the hopes of buying back in 31 days at a lower price. Understand that if they do not wait 31 days it is a wash. OK so Tuesday look back 30 days December the 16th and the price was about $6.50 so if the tax sales guys buy back in they can still own more shares and are guaranteed a slight win ($10,000/$6.50=1538 shares sold. $10,000/$6.14 shares so they would be up 50 shares)

Back to the shorts, the official Finra short data release for December the 15th T=2 price was $7 and there were 18.5 Million shares short. Folks they sold 1.5 million shares over the past month and as of today those 1.5 million shares sold (80k shares per day) they held the price down 5 Cents Per day. Currently $6.14, can you imagine if they did not sell those 1.5 million shares (oh and make no mistake about it they will have to buy those shares back)

Let me do this another way, Finra data release last week for the period ending December 30 T+2 price $4.25 and listed 18.9 shares short, current shorts 20.1 or 1.2 Million MORE shares and the price has moved up to $6.14. EVEN though the short count increase 1.2 million shares the price is up $1.89. Can you imagine if they didn’t sell those 1.2 million shares? Again make no mistake about it they must buy those shares back so when they do the demand will rise, 1.2 million shares bought over call it trading 12 days that would be 100k extra shares per day on the buy side instead of the sell side that is a Huge F’in deal.

OK now let me take the 400k shares shorted in the last half of December (the difference between the December 15th and December 30th) 400k shares shorted between $7.00 and $4.00 call it $5.50 so 400,000 x $5.50=2.2 Million half the money must be put up front to make the play $1.1 million. (they have the 2.2 million from the sale and initially deposited 1.1 million with their broker 3.3 million so at $6.14 it costs them 2.45 million to return shares and close that position) So with the price is at $6.14 they are down about $250k in 2 weeks, not a real big deal but remember that most likely there are Tax sales that will return to the buy side and that should push up the price. Shares shorted at $5.50 loose all of their money at $8.25 (that was Thanksgiving and when the tax sales started) It will be an interesting couple of weeks because as the tax guys cover the shorts either dig deeper to provide shares or end up deeper.

So in the last few weeks of the year the short count moved up, the tax sales happened, and the shorts are deeper. Comprende

The shorts that are in the green may begin to cover and if they do it will be very interesting, Green Shorts, Red Shorts, Tax guys, it should be fun to watch. It doesn’t matter to me because I’m long and as such I can step back and watch the game from the skybox using logic, not emotion. I know that some here comment that it doesn’t matter how many shorts there are but it does. It does in fact matter that we step back and look at the logic behind the move and not to emotions when the shorts borrow shares and sell them to turn it red, any many squirm. Again they still need to cover they do not know how they did until they are cashed out, fees paid, carrying costs factored in and shares returned.

Ok Next for the Technology Angle

So silicon photonics was supposed to be the next best thing and when it came out of the box Immediately hit the wall for speed performance. Lightwave can triple the speed and cut power consumption by an order of magnitude (1/10th the power is required)

So to put this in perspective take a car that gets 33mpg and can travel at 100mph. With this on the plugs the car can get 100mpg and for 300mph. This technology is in 5 foundries with 2 more now coming online, they have been working with them for 18 months and a run takes 6 to 9 months. They are developing pdk’s so that anyone that wants to order it can get it from a foundry. This is how you ramp from 0 to 100 in short order. When this goes it will happen very fast. Honestly, I do not know what the shorts were thinking. They will not give up easily but when you understand the numbers it makes this period of trading easier to understand. Typically shorts will target a company with financial problems but that is not the case here, they have enough money on hand for the foreseeable future and no debt. A few ounces of perkinimine made in the lab can produce 10’s of thousand of modulators each modulator is a few thousand Dollars. Think about that.

Modulators are coming back from the foundries and Lightwave is on a hiring spree to test and qualify them, $LWLG just increased the lab space for the additional talent.

Some of you like to trade stocks more so than research before your put your money down set and forget and don’t pay attention to the market manipulation/gyrations. OK so folks need to understand that until now Silicon sufficed 35 GHz which equates to 50 Gig Per Second NRZ (non return to Zero) that means pure speed not a stepped signal (PAM4). Pam 4 doubles the speed. Silicon 35 GHz = 50 Gbps using PAM4 (double) equals 100 Gig per second. 100 Gig Per second is all that the industry required. The industry also did 4 lanes of 25 to get to 100 4x25=100 Gbps. Various configurations like 50x2 (PAM4) 4 lanes = 400 Gig Per second modulator. It looks like a single but actually these things are 4 lanes, the industry move to 8 lanes is difficult trying for 16 and 32 lanes but things get quite messy. Over the period that you talk about Lebby saw what was coming but realized the industry would want to see a steady progression. So he did 10, then 25, then 40, then 50 now 100, 150 and I think 200 and 400 are on the bench. (Lightwave demonstrated a 250 Gig modulator with partner a few months ago). In a recent presentation lebby moves the 400 gig from the proposed to the demonstrated column. See below.

Notice that “unique” Polymer PIC platforms now includes 400G and is colored green and in the “technology demonstrated” circle < - - - - - - - - That is HUGE[esgnew.PNG

2000 Reads on this on reddit, it looks like those stats are only given to the author, but dang 2,000 different investors with 100% upvote. Something like the more thumbs up gives you more Carma (whatever that is) they give it to other investors, so please hit us up with thumbs up here and on reddit

Xster eyes No trading a good time for everyone to do to perform due diligence today

Day Range:
Last Trade Time:
Total Trades:
  • 1D
  • 1M
  • 3M
  • 6M
  • 1Y
  • 5Y
Recent LWLG News