Be careful. You'll be crucified on this board for saying you actually want to think about the whole thing before jumping on Denner's bandwagon.
I've watched so many companies like Amarin fall to pieces or $1 a share over the years and then rise from the dead to be enormously successful with a good turnaround plan. Apple, for one, was like that.
I'm grading Amarin's performance since Judge Du on a curve because the ruling came literally just as a now 3-year-old pandemic was starting, making European counties hesitant to spend money on new health care and Americans afraid to even visit their doctors. The pandemic also probably killed off a lot of Amarin customers, unfortunately, since it hurt diabetics and people with heart trouble the most. And I initially agreed with advertising in the U.S. and seeing if a sales force could boost Vascepa sales even with generics on the market.
When that wasn't working, the company seemed to quickly decide to jettison the sales people. And then a hurricane of issues arising from Judge Du's devastating decision became a perfect storm early last year, costing the company tens of millions in wasted inventory and price-dropping deals they had to make to secure 60 percent of the market. But in the end they made the right moves. Did anybody really think Judge Du's decision wasn't going to be disastrous for the company, at least temporarily? Everybody here seems to think they have 20-20 eyesight, in hindsight.
The current break-even to slightly profitable quarter with European sales on the horizon leaves me interested in staying the course for now and giving KM's team a chance.
Hate to say it, but the line in Amarin's release today saying that the Denner thing casts a dark cloud over the company and makes it more difficult to secure pricing in European countries has the ring of truth. Makes the company seem rinky-dink, like it might not even exist in six months.
I watched as a new Cincinnati Bengals coach took over a few years ago in that long sports-beleaguered city and everybody wanted his head after they won six games or so in his first two seasons. There was not a supporter to be found. The Denner enthusiasts would have been calling for his firing nonstop. But then the Bengals made the Super Bowl last year and it turned out all those people were wrong.
Amarin has bounced back before and taken flight. Just give it a long enough runway.
