Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Gator328]

I am not part of the WGT or God Bless crowds, but I will say that my optimism has increased significantly over the past 7 years. I originally gave Anavex about a 5% chance of approval, which at the time was a lot considering the 99% failure rate.

I think the odds of approval for any one indication are now greater than 80%, and the odds of approval for multiple indications are slightly better than 50/50. If the 50 mg cohort is observably improved over the 30 mg and placebo, I'd say we're looking at closer to 95% approval for Alzheimer's.

My critical faculties see a disease without a cure, one that the current treatment isn't adequate, and the alternatives either have safety risks or are not far enough along in their trials to pose an immediate threat. There is an evident need and if Blarcamesine can play even a small role in fulfilling this need by helping a subset of the Alzheimer's population, it will be approved. If another trial is needed, Anavex has the funds to run it without dilution.