Alternative Path

[gdl]

Acting like a blow off top. It spiked to barely beat the 5th wave high making it a 7th wave ON:Y if the structure is about to break down. This move today was too unexpected and irrational. Not a relief rally but more like an assumption that we just started a new Bull market. The Fibonacci turn dates were yesterday for a shorter cycle and today for a longer cycle. The dollar and yields are plunging. Doesn't make sense. A tamer inflation picture should be BULLISH for the dollar unless the prevalent notion of a recession is causing this. Problem with that is spending and wages are still going up.

The street ALWAYS has a dramatic reversal when a recession is here after a long period of strength. I don't see this recession but the street does.

I always found it fascinating that the VIX drops during huge surges but spikes when we fall. Seems a wild spike move up has much less premium to bet options than the same move downward.