Alternative Path

[gdl]

Window is just about closed. Only thru this Friday is a slim possibility. I marvel at the markets ability to build a cushion before the two biggest market movers, CPI and Fed rate hike. the street is giddy and convinced a new bull market is here. How they manage to navigate much higher rates and keep the consumer happy with spending thru ever increased debt and high mortgage payments. While it is possible to keep raising wages the best they can hope for is stagflation. The biggest elephant in the room is the past 40 years of borrowing and gambling. We will see very big defaults and major economic sectors under water in 2023.

Perhaps i got it all wrong and we thrive like the 80's? Anything's possible.

So the last gasp possible drop is right here with a 4 day window this week. Can't carry it to next week. that is an impossibility. the PPT,FED and all the powers that be will never allow that. I suspect giddy wall street started drinking a wee bit too soon and a hangover will be present by end of week. BUT I no longer see a crash.

the cushion for a drop tomorrow was made possible with the Monday rally. Maybe 50 or 100 SPX points but nothing they can't handle. I will be surprised if the FED wants to accommodate a run away holiday cheer because they have to clean up the mess after. The wording THIS TIME will be more forceful IMO declaring inflation enemy number one and not defeated by any means. 50 basis points is a given and will have no lasting affect other than a knee jerk response.