NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[VuBru]

This is all speculation but sometime breadcrumbs indicate a loaf of bread is present. I was doing a 6 hour drive this week and started thinking about the breadcrumbs we have. Assuming the company's main goal is to get DCVAX out there to help patients, which I believe is the case, consider the following:
1) Objectively NWBO does not have the in-house personnel or expertise to get FDA approval for or market DCVAX. They need help desperately, and there are no signs of any plans to hire more personnel. A partnership or buyout (BO) would be an obvious solution. The company also has almost no financial resources left and for some reason did not request that many more shares to be authorized at the upcoming ASM beyond what is necessary to convert the C's. They are running on fumes and need capital. Why would the company not be pursuing partnership or BO? That would make no sense.
2) The company does not have the funds to do further trials (direct). Partnership or BO would be an obvious solution.
3) The company already has a working relationship with BPs from their combo trials, and a successful P3 trial of combos could extend the market for their agents. There is money to be made for BPs so why not invest in NWBO? Beyond combo uses, DCVAX for GBM as stand-alone would also create revenue. Again, why not invest if you are a BP?
4) BP may have been hesitant that there might be something wrong with the trial results. Having a JAMA level journal sign off on them may have helped them feel a bit more comfortable about how results would be received by reviewers at the FDA and with likelihood of approval (which I think is a done deal given GBM's orphan status and current FDA thinking on ECAs for such conditions). Keep in mind the company has known the JAMA article was accepted since late August, so they could have privately shared that news with BPs in early September. Negotiations could have been ongoing for months. The company has also had their full data for well over a year now and could have provided the raw study data under an NDA long ago to prospective partners/buyers. A partnership or BO now would not in any way be rushed - there has been plenty of time for this.
5) However you may feel about bold predictions, Fireman has been a legit and level-headed poster for a while. Suddenly, he notes a hedge fund friend contacted him, and after that, he has been very cagey. Doing big deals involves lots of people, and word clearly sometimes gets out on the street before big things happen even when things are supposed to be private. It happens. So, I do not find Fireman's implied claims that he knows something big that will increase the stock price to the $5 range in the next week or so to be implausible. I understand his being cagey - it is appropriate. I also find his predictions remarkably specific for total BS. Why would he do that with no history of being a price manipulator by past outrageous statements? What could "big news" be? MIA approval? - no, that is expected and not really major news. Submission to MHRA or FDA? No - again, expected and doesn't really change the current company situation. Surprise lawsuit? - done. Uplisting? - no, not possible right now. It is too early for another publication. I find it hard to think of events that would be "big news" other than the options above, or a partnership/BO.
6) Why was the lawsuit filed when it was? Might they have been hoping to clear the runway and reduce stock price manipulation prior to big pending news? Getting the stock price up a bit would certainly help with bad optics for the BP buyer or partner who might be accused of overpaying. The lawsuit provides a good reason for claiming the current stock price does not reflect the company's underlying value. Again, might this suit smooth the runway for something big? If the company wins the suit, it will be years before they see any damage award. This was not an effort to keep the company afloat short term. On the other hand, if a BO was pending, we might wonder why NWBO would even bother with the suit. The company would soon no longer exist. Maybe this would argue more for partnership than BO?
7) Why was LL's recent talk on combo therapy pulled so fast? Some indicated they had heard that the company had requested this. Why? They allowed the 5/10 talk to be kept up. If Topher Tink is to be believed, Al Musella said he could not explain why it was pulled but might be able to do so today. This didn't happen but why would AM give such a specific time for being able to explain? Pending news that he is aware is coming out soon? He seems pretty plugged in to the company so it is not inconceivable that he was asked to pull the talk down with a confidential explanation of why and when this might change. Why would it be pulled? If a BP is partnering or doing a BO of NWBO, maybe the talk included what the BP now considers proprietary information?
8) Is whatever to be announced coming later than expected? Maybe it is to be triggered by another event. Maybe MIA approval which is also late?
9) Why was the ASM scheduled for the last day possible this year? Clearly they wanted to at least look like they were trying to have an ASM this year for compliance purposes. Maybe they waited as long as possible to give time for some big news to be announced that could then be discussed at the ASM (maybe beyond the JAMA article)?
10) The fact that the company requested an authorized share increase (without obvious buyers) suggests that they may have wanted to convert everything into regular shares rather than C shares. Might this change be necessary in a BO situation (e.g., what if you had a BO and some stock holders had shares that could not actually be issued because they exceeded authorized shares?)
11) Maybe LP is smarter than many give her credit for. Assuming there is a partnership and she has been specifically trying to get at least $5 per share in added value for the company, that number may not be random. Once a partnership is announced, the stock price should quickly hit the company value implied in the the deal, and at $5, would be high enough to quickly uplist. Obviously this is irrelevant in a BO scenario.
13) Arguing against both a partnership or BO might be the recent purchase of C shares by JJ. How could this be done without him being accused of insider trading? The company obviously has to keep the lights on and pay all their bills even while waiting for an influx of cash. Would it be acceptable under those circumstances for JJ to buy C shares to help keep them afloat temporarily? Is it possible that only LP and her lawyers knows what's going on if there is a partnership or BO in the works? Might the board members be unaware of this yet?

I give it until the end of December before I start thinking Fireman is full of it