Netflix: Wells Fargo upgrades to Overweight, suggests ads could help improve revs; thinks churn will improve in '23 (325.21 +14.95)
Analyst Steven Cahall said, "Positive catalyst path in 2023, led by lower churn and stable subs. Looking back, with competition increasing and content growth slowing, the pieces were there for tougher NFLX performance in 2022. Looking at the same mosaic, we see scope for the KPIs to exceed in 2023, and NFLX is still down by about half YTD vs the S&P500 -17%. Content is clearly improving with MAUs/DAUs up 6%/9% y/y in our latest monthly data scrub as content starts to hit. We think the pull-forward from COVID is now mostly digested, with global connectivity still providing a long-term tailwind of ~+8mm net adds annually before any penetration increase. We see churn improving in '23 due to content + AVOD + paid sharing, and 10bps of churn = ~10mm subs. So, we feel better on subs, while ads drive us ahead on revenues."