Alternative Path

[gdl]

Core PPI YoY is in the stratosphere. That is not as important as seeing a steady drop month over month. Tomorrow it is expected to be flat from prior month. if it hits .4% or higher the street will react negatively. if it is benign MY assumption of a crash here is way off. I truly believe this ONE Measurement is that important to keep th hope up that inflation will be tamed soon. The JOBs, wages, spending, service sector has moved right back into the inflation scenario that is not tame and in fact still out of control.

the major analysis are obsessed with a recession around the corner. With these recent numbers it seems vey unlikely. it is true that a reversal by the FED on inflation is actually very bad for the immediate stock market I do not see that scenario unfolding yet. So it is possible we continue on this recovery even with nagging inflation.

I also worry that the investor is still anxiously betting for a crash here. It seems my views are not so uncommon and every time it seems we could collapse the Put/Call ratio goes nuts. It is nuts today meaning they see still a crash ahead. That doesn;t negate the possibility only that many are aligned for a crash.