The 4k initial claims rise to 230k from 226k (was 225k) leaves claims closer to the 3-month high of 241k in late-November, while continuing claims rose by 62k to a 10-month high of 1,671k from to a prior high of 1,609k (was 1,608k). The insured jobless rate rose to 1.2% from 1.1% in the prior two weeks and 1.0% in the 20 weeks before that, versus an all-time low of 0.9% in June. Initial claims are entering December above averages of 229k in November, 219k in October and 207k in September. Analysts assume a 233k December BLS survey week reading that sits above recent BLS readings of 223k in November, 214k in October and 209k in September. For continuing claims, analysts expect an 89k rise between the November and December BLS survey weeks, after increases of 113k in November and 92k in October. The climb for initial and continuing claims since September implies downside risk for our 180k December nonfarm payroll estimate.
