Alternative Path

[gdl]

Non farm productivity and labor costs come out BEFORE the opening tomorrow. I suspect it will not be pretty but a non-event nonetheless.

I need to see a rebound tomorrow and follow thru on Thursday. BIG BIG DAY on Friday. It can be a non-event but still a big day regardless. WHY?

The PPI has been trending down for months. Still higher than normal but as long as it stays trending down the street will view this as confirmation the underlying inflation problem is gone.

SO if the market has recovered somewhat before the open on Friday it can make the current jitters EXPLODE or have a relief rally, a BIG ONE!

Friday determines if we have that rally into the New Year, as everyone expects -or- finish the bear wave before any decent rally can ensue. Unfinished is my take. So we finish the first stage of a long deep drop or we wait till January. My current assumption is we drop HERE and NOW!
I say this simply because the valuation and way we formed a bottom was not in line with almost every major bear market. Not even close!

BULL and BEAR alike is expecting an easy steady upside move till New Years. Some think a big move while other a small one.

heck for all i know we have started the crash.

IF the PPI is a big number we drop very hard. No doubts what so ever!
If the PPI is tame or low we get a relief rally.

I DO NOT SEE a boring Friday and in turn the follow thru for Monday. best most logical bet would be a STRADDLE PLAY!

The PPI started the huge spike move up last time. Will it do a repeat? Will it do the exact opposite of last time?