Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Gator328]

No, it shouldn't. As much as I would love for it to trade that high because I own a few of the $45 Jan 20 2023 calls that will probably expire worthless, the reality is that Anavex is still a non-revenue producing biotech with significant hurdles to clear before it's able to begin generating income. Just look at the Alzheimer's Association's refusal to even acknowledge Blarcamesine as one of many obstacles that Anavex's management will have to navigate. Unfortunately for us, Lecanemab is in the driver's seat and will be the next blockbuster drug to be approved. Fortunately for us, Anavex appears to have a better drug and I am hopeful the better drug will prevail -- but it'll take time, and it doesn't always happen (see: VHS vs Betamax, Windows OS vs Mac OS in the business world, etc).

Anavex shouldn't be trading for $200 by the end of the year. It shouldn't be trading for $50. But to your point, SAVA shouldn't be at $30+. Countless other biotechs are overhyped and overpriced. So if you want to compare Anavex vis-a-vis to the rest of the market, sure, it's undervalued. But that doesn't mean the market is correct.

Let's wait until there's some revenue and cash flow before we begin to make projections about valuation. The first step is getting approval. Then it's convincing doctors to prescribe Blarcamesine. Neither of those will be easy accomplishments, even though logic says they should be.