Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Gator328]

Traders may be disappointed with the lack of a 100% pop in today's stock price but history has proven that it's not difficult to suppress a small-cap company like Anavex -- temporarily. That's the key word. The only opinion that matters belongs to the FDA, and Adam Feuerstein and his ilk have zero influence over what it decides. Maybe another P3 trial will be required and maybe it won't. Time will tell.

While yesterday is certainly worth celebrating, we're still not out of the woods. In some ways the difficult part is just beginning. The FDA can be influenced more easily than a blinded data trial. Logic should reign supreme but if that were the case, Biogen's Aducanumab would never have been approved. The FDA doesn't always get it right and with billions of dollars at stake, it wouldn't surprise me to see increased efforts to delay or derail Anavex's efforts to become the first to cross the finish line. Even if approval happens immediately, companies like Eisai spend millions of dollars hiring attractive and personable sales reps to develop lasting relationships with physicians and offer them golf trips, expensive dinners and other perks. If you think Adam Feuerstein has power and influence, just wait until the seven-figure lobbyists make an appearance.

If Anavex wants to become a major player in the field, it'll take some time -- even with a blockbuster drug. It's like a talented 1st round draft pick who has tons of raw talent but needs time to develop. The stock price will ultimately be determined by the quality of Anavex's marketing team, something we can't assess yet because it doesn't exist. My guess is that we'll never find out because someone will make a partnership or buyout offer that most shareholders won't refuse.