Some sobering reasons to stay focused. Todays reports and comments
Every time in the last 60 years that the Fed has pivoted from raising rates or ceasing to raise rates the market has plunged. See the Dot Com top and the 07 top and the 20 top for a few.
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(Reuters) -Wall Street slipped on Thursday as a contraction in manufacturing activity last month clouded data showing a mild easing in inflation and solid consumer spending, while a fall in Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) shares dragged the Dow lower.
U.S. manufacturing activity shrank for the first time in 2-1/2 years in November as higher borrowing costs weighed on demand for goods, and proved to be a trigger for investors to book profits following a rally in the previous session.
Markets were boosted earlier on Thursday following a reading from the Commerce Department, which showed consumer spending, that accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 0.8% after an unrevised 0.6% increase in September.
"Obviously the (manufacturing) sector is in recession and this basically upholds the fact that we're headed for a recession," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities
Weighing the most on the Dow Jones Industrial Average was Salesforce Inc, which tumbled 9.9% after the software maker said Bret Taylor would step down as co-chief executive officer in January.
Dollar General Corp (NYSE:DG) fell 8.7% after the discount retailer cut its annual profit forecast, while Costco Wholesale Corp (NASDAQ:COST) shed 6.6% after the membership-only retail chain reported slower sales growth in November.
"Yesterday's move was so crazy large, this is probably just some natural profit taking," Rusty Vanneman, chief investment strategist at Orion Advisor Solutions, said.
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FAST MONEY ‘Wild ride’: Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson predicts double-digit percentage drop will hit stocks in early 2023
Investors may be on the doorstep of a deep pullback.
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, who has an S&P 500 year-end target of 3,900 for next year, warns corporate America is getting ready to unleash downward earnings revisions that will pummel stocks.
“It’s the path. I mean nobody cares about what’s going to happen in 12 months. They need to deal with the next three to six months,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Tuesday. “That’s where we actually think there’s significant downside. So, while 3,900 sounds like a really boring six months. No... it’s going to be a wild ride.”
Wilson, who serves as the firm’s chief U.S. equity strategist and chief investment officer, believes the S&P could drop as much as 24% from Tuesday’s close in early 2023.
======================================================================Recap: Street quick to conclude the FED will reverse course soon. Every time that happened in the last 60 years we had a plunging market. (This has NOT been verified). Accelerated spending by consumer as manufacturing is dramatically slowing and earnings continues to be split between the winners and losers. Dramatic reversals in stocks market seen and immediately ahead.
I have been shouting this scenario for a while and kept losing money thinking the street would realize their mistake. I was seen as a crazy man till big brokerage firm like Morgan said the exact same thing! All I can hope for is the street ignore all this doom and gloom stuff till Next Year. It would make TIMING the next plunge that much easier.
AI
