Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Doktornolittle]

To Scale Things: I don't pretend to know the results of this trial, but I do have some feel for the $magnitude of what is at stake. Not from projected sales if approved, but on the market valuation of an ALZ drug in the past. When Biogen announced the halting of their P3 for aducanumab for ALZ the first time around in March of 2019, the Biogen market cap dropped by $20B. I'm not saying good results in this trial are worth $20B... but that event with Biogen is saying that. Hooya lists AVXL's OS as 78M shares. I don't know if that is accurate, but even at 80M this Biogen collapse suggests the market could value good results as high as $20B/80M = $250/share. And Biogen's $20B market valuation of an ALZ drug was just the speculative value. So that suggests a market value of good results at much beyond $20B, an AVXL share price much beyond $250/share. I don't believe that is going to happen, but if it did, it would be consistent with this event at Biogen. One difference: I believe Biogen had at least two of three of the stooges as cheerleaders for that drug, even though that approach to ALZ had already failed in other trials. Wow. The hedge funds must have made a lot of money off of that very very unexpected collapse. Just like the collapse when the infamous single-bullet / limpit / cancer cure trial failed after being heavily cheer-leaded by the same two stooges as they beat down competing cancer cures (below Feuerstein's self proclaimed magic market cap threshold) with the help of their vast following of minions.