NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[VikingInvest]

Daily observations.

A general observation: What an amazing amount of support NWBO, LL and Murcidencel have received from the medical community since the JA. This, however, has not translated into a rise in the SP. The bear raid was successful, but I have to believe they have been disappointed with their ability to add shares to cover. I think that retail has been adding instead of selling and that has severely limited the number of shares they have been able to add. I have no access to detailed information, but have been told that CDEL have been the most aggressive buyer on the way down. They are likely the one MM who have had the biggest short interest clients, so only natural that they are the most aggressive buyers. I can see the SP move back up as we get closer to the end of the day. As I am writing this, I can see that it is slightly up, which is good, but my thought was that they would try to close the gap at 0.82, so I did not get to add more this morning.

Buy out or partnership: I have been told that the rumor mill is amp'ing up in this regard. I see a lot of posts that talk about BO and how any BP would pay 20x over the current value of NWBO. THEY WILL NOT. I think that if you take a careful look at the BMY/NKTR deal from 2018, you will see a frame work that would be perfect for NWBO and a BP. A decent amount up front, milestone payments and a profit sharing for all future revenue. Whomever will win the BP battle for control of Murcidencel does not have to own NWBO. They just need to control the use of Murcidencel, they do not need to 'own' NWBO. If this is Merck, they just need to know that they can control the use of Murcidencel and thereby extend the value of Keytruda for years to come. This set-up would do that. The BMY deal were only for 9? indications and NKTR were free to use their drug in other indications. Now Merck would likely not want to limit the indications and NKTR drug was only in P1/2, so you can add figures to that deal to get to where an NWBO deal would end up.

BMY Deal

What needs to happen before we get news of any deal. IF there really is a deal ready to get signed, I would assume that at least two things have to happen before it can be finalized. The Journal article being one and the Commercial production certification is likely the other. As many of you, I am constantly checking MHRA for the cert. It looks like they post most of them on Tuesday and Thursday evenings after the close of the US markets. Let's hope we get this cert. either this week or next week as the average time for issuing of these certs have elapsed and we could see one soon.

I also have noticed that some people are speculating that becoming 'another' company via a merger could be happening. Pre-covid, SPAC's were the rage of Wall Street. Now people are realizing that even though it is much faster than an IPO, they are very expensive for companies as the cost of managing the Spac's are fairly high and likely not worth it. I do not think this is the way they would go, but who knows.

Again, Just my humble opinion.