NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[RPD60]

NWBO Share Price
FeMike,
Yes some 5 years ago or so I did a deep dive on the potential revenues--I think it was alphaxx(?) who posted revenue projections, etc. I did a Discounted Cash Flow analysis as one method. I looked at Market caps of other biotechs as a second method. I did some technical analysis as well. I recall that I did not give much weight to DC Vax only DC VAX-L. I recall outstanding shares were about 700K.....so in all honesty, if we say today we have twice those shares or 1.5B, then arguably you should cut my estimate in half ($21)--but again, I did not give much weight to DC Vax nor did I see an environment where BP had piles of cash. I also did not take into account any type of short squeeze--although that would not be the buyout value but an adder to the share price under panic mode.

With all that said, I believe that we will reach a share price (buyout+ short squeeze, etc) of $42/share--it may not stay there. I understand $42/share is about a $63B valuation---very high but IF (and I know it is a big IF) DC Vax has as much efficacy against all/most other cancers as DC Vax L, then $60B is not a stretch at all.

Also consider that Keytruda is raking in $17B a year in revenue in CY2021 (with patents expiring in 2028)--which does not mean that revenue goes to zero in 2028, but they will have to fight the generics (or put one out of their own) and so the revenue should still be >$10B a year ---but with DC VaxL as a effective combo drug, they get to reset the timeline on that $17B/year revenue stream.

Some more math;

Keyturda revenue is about $17B--total Merck revenue is $48B, market cap is about $270B

so, keytruda makes up 35% of Mercks revenue and therefore about 35% of it market cap

35% of $270B = $95B

Keytruda is worth $95B

I think DC Vax could be worth $60B don't you? Hence $42/share is not so crazy an estimate