Tesla Inc (TSLA)

[rolvram]

Gary Black on Twitter:

$TSLA -59% since 11/4/2021, its 2nd largest drawdown on record (2020 Covid drawdown #1). We all know what happened next.

Meanwhile TSLA 2022 EPS ests +48% since 11/4/2021. TSLA 2023 EPS ests +51%. TSLA fundamentals haven’t changed. P/E compression due to macro and TWTR noise.
2/ Approx 40pp or 2/3 of $TSLA -59% drawdown due to macro:
- NDX -29% since 11/4/2022
- With TSLA beta 1.38x, TSLA should be -40%.

Charts:
- 2022 EPS +48% since 11/4/2021
- 2023 EPS +50% since 11/4/2021
- TSLA -59% vs NDX -29% since 11/4/2021
- TSLA 1-yr beta vs NDX 1.38x
3/ For those who didn’t get my riddle about what happened after the 2020 record Covid drawdown, $TSLA soared from $24 on 3/18/2020 to $235 by 2020 year-end (post split adjusted), finishing 2020 with a +743% YTD increase (vs NDX +48%).

Charts:
- 2022 EPS +48% since 11/4/2021
- 2023 EPS +50% since 11/4/2021
- TSLA -59% vs NDX -29% since 11/4/2021
- TSLA 1-yr beta vs NDX 1.38x