I have to say KM came out swinging in Europe today. I don't know whether he had his Wheaties this morning or what, but I was encouraged to hear his positive attitude.
Just a few weeks after the earnings were announced, he understandably didn't have much new to say but he sounded much more enthused than in the past, particularly because of the RESPECT outcome and the results of the study that found fibrates don't work. He sounded confident that Amarin has turned the corner and the nightmare of the past few years is in the past.
I've listened to so many of these financial interviews over the years and by design they are not really meant to be avenues for news announcements, and this one wasn't either, but Karim did something I've never heard before when he spoke about share price and what is needed to get it off the ground.
He said the company originally projected reaching $3 billion in sales in the U.S. and now expects to match that in Europe and beyond. So, in that sense, he was trying to make a projection I hadn't heard from him before.
If there was news of any kind, it was that he said that the RESPECT trial was already aiding Amarin in its price negotiations in Europe. He said the company now has three studies that it's using to convince others of Vascepa's value.
If I heard right, he recounted how horrid the company's cash burn had become at the turn of the year last year. I think he said the company lost over $90 million in the first quarter and over $70 million in the second quarter. But yet managed to turn cash positive in the third quarter, minus restructuring costs.
"This makes us feel a lot more comfortable with our cash runway."
At another point, he said: "We feel we can continue to operate effectively without the need to finance."
Found it interesting that he cited Crestor as an example of a drug that ended up very successful in Europe after refusing to sell in Germany. Then he said it was "not uncommon that Germany offers a very low price, take it or leave it. In our case, we said 'leave it' (then he chuckled). So far, we still commit that the potential is above a billion without Germany. Our focus is to drive many of these (countries) to the finish line."
He spoke of the advantage of the sale price points reached in Europe being public, saying it was helpful for other countries where negotiations were going on to see what prices other countries settled at.
"Honestly, the more we have countries approved, the better the negotiations."
He sounded downright giddy talking about the study a couple weeks ago that found fibrates don't work.
"People still thought they can use fibrates. ... all these patients today who are on fibrates are going to be shifted. What are the options? The only real option is Vascepa."
He said there are no reasons to switch to a generic as long as Amarin has 60 percent of the U.S. market and basically implied that even generic competitors would laugh at the company if it switched to selling a generic when it controls so much of the market.
But then he added: "We are ready for multiple scenarios" if the situation changes.
"If we see ourselves losing more of the market, then we switch to a generic."
During the brief question and answer period, KM was asked about Sarissa. He basically summed it up as some investors wanting a bigger seat at the table than others and seemed to imply that Amarin won't be bullied by any outspoken shareholder.
"At the end of day, we are doing everything to grow shareholder value. I don't think we have any disagreement with shareholders of what needs to be done. Some want to be more involved than others."
As for selling the company, he made it clear that no sale of the company can even be considered until these price negotiations and launches occur around the world.
"You need to do the work. Who is going to step in today and negotiate with Spain?"
Then he said once all that is done, it'll be decided "whether that becomes a good point to sell the company."
But he didn't rule it out.
