Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

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IF the Blarcamesine results are better than any other Alzheimer's medication on the market, then AVXL should easily command a market capitalization of at least $18 BILLION.

That is a stock pumper's valuation that fails to factor in important regulatory variables. My valuation expectations taking regulatory considerations into consideration:

$18 Billion--not possible in 2022 under any circumstances. AVXL is not BP and lacks world-wide (and even U.S.) commercialization (including marketing and distribution) ability.

$10 Billion and up--sometime in 2023, a home run with stellar trial data and assuming an expectation of regulatory approval in 2023 with no additional trials required and with a commercialization partner on board.

$5 Billion and up--in 2022, a triple assuming stellar trial data with regulatory approval in 2023 with requirement for a Phase IV confirmatory trial.

$2 Billion and up--in 2022, a double with a trial meeting all endpoints with regulatory requirements for an additional Phase III trial adding two+ years to the commercialization timeline.

Less than $2 billion--in 2022, a single with a partially successful trial perhaps not hitting every endpoint and with nuanced data with multiple additional trials necessary.

$0.5 Billion--in 2022 with an AD trial failure; higher in 2023 at $2 Billion or higher with an EXCELLENCE trial success and anticipated Rett's regulatory approval; $3 Billon or higher approaching Rett's commercialization.