A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[ls7550]

https://www.signalpointinvest.com/team/ (Tom/CIO) has a more recent photo to the last mental image one I had in mind from a good decade+ ago

Has a longer history also :) 2008

In the article section, Sequence of Returns risk article, and another possible option is to phase retirement. Start your retirement portfolio/asset allocation a year earlier, with a third of the total retirement pot, than your actual retirement date, and just let the cash that throws off build up in your cash account. Then load another third in at your retirement date, and then the last third a year later, using the cash built up from the first loading along with some additional cash set aside as the income in-fill until you get to the end of the first year of retirement. Averaging in that way avoids lumping all-in at the worst possible time. Even a single year difference in start date can make a massive difference to final outcome. Combined with AIM like add-low/reduce-high, along the way and overall you're more inclined to hit a 'average' outcome that is good enough and is significantly better than the worst case outcome.

IIRC a 1969 retiree really struggled whilst a 1970 retiree did better. Similar for a 2000 retiree, having averaged in across 1999/2000/2001 or 2000/2001/2002 ... was better than having lumped all into retirement in 2000 alone.

Clive